A framework for the assessment of the oil price

Abstract

THERE IS A WIDE diversity of interpretations in the literature about the mechanisms that govern oil prices. None of them has been able to produce reasonable price forecasts. Indeed, forecasts produced in the recent past have been dramatically wrong. It is difficult to anticipate the price of oil: it depends on a large set of highly uncertain variables. However, estimates of future oil prices, or at least of a range of prices, are essential for policy-making. A better understanding of the interplay of the forces that affect oil prices is absolutely necessary. This paper aims to offer a contribution to the improvement of this understanding. It suggests a ra-