A framework for the assessment of reservoir operation adaptation to climate change in an arid region

Abstract

It is essential to assess the adaptation of reservoir operation to climate change in arid regions. The main objective of this research is to propose a framework for assessment of reservoir rule-curve (RRC) adaptation for climate change scenarios. The framework is applied to an arid zone in Iran and consists of the three models: downscaling, rainfall-runoff and reservoir optimisation models. LARS-WG is tested in 99% confidence level before to using it as downscaling model. Seven artificial neural network models are proposed, examined and compared with IHACRES to find proper rainfall-runoff model for arid zone. Current and adapted reservoir rule curves are derived by dynamic programming optimisation. The results demonstrate capability of proposed framework in assessment of adaptation and show that global warming negatively influences proposed index (water supply index) in normal and wet years, but has positive influence for dry years. It also improves reservoir reliability, but it cannot restore current reliability.

PRIORITIZATION OF SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES IN ARID AND SEMI-ARID REGIONS USING SWOT COUPLED AHP TECHNIQUE IN ADDRESSING SDGs

“…Moreover, in the study area, water transmission efficiency is estimated between 50-60%, water distribution efficiency between 50-60%, farm efficiency 50--40% and finally efficiency for water agricultural plans is between 15-20%, which demonstrates low agricultural water efficiency (Iran Water Resources Management Company, 2012). Additionally, global warming and climate change have their inevitable consequences for water resources which can limit water supply in the near future (Banihabib et al, 2016). Both low water use efficiency and global climate change impacts warn us to focus on strategies for increasing water use efficiency in the future.…”

Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Alpine Precipitation and Their Vertical Differentiation: A Case Study from the Upper Shule River

“…These transitions are particularly prominent in the arid and semi-arid regions [7,8], thereby exacerbating water scarcity in inland river basins [9]. In order to ensure the sustainable development of social-economy and ecosystem health in the basin, it is necessary to objectively grasp the influence level and mechanism of climate change on hydrological elements [10].…”