A framework for research linking weather, climate and COVID-19

Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Sweijd, Neville; Shumake-Guillemot, Joy; Morse, Andy; Gordon, Chris; Marty, Aileen M.; Trtanj, J.; Luterbacher, Jürg; Botai, Joel Ongego; Behera, Swadhin K.; Lü, Yonglong; Olwoch, Jane Mukarugwiza; Takahashi, K.; Stowell, Jennifer; Rodó, Xavier

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-19546-7

Cited by 51 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 13 publications

(11 reference statements)

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“…A true environmental sensitivity of COVID-19 may exist, but its impact has likely been minimal thus far in the pandemic, as compared with the influences of non-pharmaceutical interventions and human behavior [ 47 , 48 ]. If studies claiming to have found a sensitivity of COVID-19 to meteorological factors are presented to policymakers and the public without adequate scientific vetting or without appropriate context, dissemination of such results presents potentially dangerous and even lethal misinformation and can erode scientific credibility [ 9 ].…”

Section: Conclusion and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While meteorological impacts on the transmission of COVID-19 might be plausibly hypothesized from the literature, statements touting the environmental sensitivity of COVID-19 may incur profound impacts and costs [ 9 ]. For example, policymakers eager to reopen economic activity may decide that a particular study justifies lifting social distancing and stay-at-home mandates because weather conditions are becoming unfavorable for COVID-19 transmission.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Associations between meteorology and COVID-19 in early studies: Inconsistencies, uncertainties, and recommendations

et al. 2021

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Meteorological variables, such as the ambient temperature and humidity, play a well-established role in the seasonal transmission of respiratory viruses and influenza in temperate climates. Since the onset of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, a growing body of literature has attempted to characterize the sensitivity of COVID-19 to meteorological factors and thus understand how changes in the weather and seasonality may impede COVID-19 transmission. Here we select a subset of this literature, summarize the diversity in these studies' scopes and methodologies, and show the lack of consensus in their conclusions on the roles of temperature, humidity, and other meteorological factors on COVID-19 transmission dynamics. We discuss how several aspects of studies' methodologies may challenge direct comparisons across studies and inflate the importance of meteorological factors on COVID-19 transmission. We further comment on outstanding challenges for this area of research and how future studies might overcome them by carefully considering robust modeling approaches, adjusting for mediating and covariate effects, and choosing appropriate scales of analysis.

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Section: Conclusion and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Associations between meteorology and COVID-19 in early studies: Inconsistencies, uncertainties, and recommendations

et al. 2021

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“…A modelling study defined the range of possible dependency between SARS-CoV-2 transmission and absolute humidity, based on two known coronaviruses and influenza [14], and recent models still do not include specific SARS-CoV-2 data [15]. More precise estimations of the effect of meteorological conditions on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are required to better anticipate and inform policies regarding seasonal adjustments [16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Colder and drier winter conditions are associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 transmission: a regional study of the first epidemic wave in north-west hemisphere countries

Landier

Paireau

Legendre

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Higher transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in cold and dry weather conditions has been hypothesized since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic but the level of epidemiological evidence remains low.During the first wave of the pandemic, Spain, Italy, France, Portugal, Canada and USA presented an early spread, a heavy COVID-19 burden, and low initial public health response until lockdowns. In a context when testing was limited, we calculated the basic reproduction number (R0) in 63 regions from the growth in regional death counts. After adjusting for population density, early spread of the epidemic, and age structure, temperature and humidity were negatively associated to SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. A reduction of mean absolute humidity by 1g/m3 was associated with a 0.15-unit increase of R0. Below 10°C, a temperature reduction of 1°C was associated with a 0.16-unit increase of R0.Our results confirm a dependency of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility to weather conditions in the absence of control measures during the first wave. The transition from summer-to winter-like conditions likely contributed to the intensification of the second wave in north-west hemisphere countries. Adjustments of the levels of social mobility restrictions need to account for increased SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility in winter conditions.

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“…Indeed, the potential impact of climate and weather conditions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission is likely minor when placed in the context of mitigation strategies and lack of population immunity during a pandemic and should not adversely shape risk perception [54,56,57]. A framework to improve research vying to link weather, climate, and COVID-19 has been proposed [58]. Finally, it is also important to note that weather conditions also directly impact air pollution [59], and this should be taken into account when trying to assess the respective contribution of weather conditions and air pollution on COVID-19.…”

Section: Weather Conditions Affect Air Pollution and Covid-19 Casesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental Determinants of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Brandt

Mersha

2021

Curr Allergy Asthma Rep

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Purpose for Review Since the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in China in late 2019 turned into a global pandemic, numerous studies have reported associations between environmental factors, such as weather conditions and a range of air pollutants (particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, etc.) and the first wave of COVID-19 cases. This review aims to offer a critical assessment of the role of environmental exposure risk factors on SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 disease severity. Recent Findings In this review, we provide a critical assessment of COVID-19 risk factors, identify gaps in our knowledge (e.g., indoor air pollution), and discuss methodological challenges of association and causation and the impact lockdowns had on air quality. In addition, we will draw attention to ethnic and socioeconomic factors driving viral transmission related to COVID-19. The complex role angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) plays in COVID-19 and future promising avenues of research are discussed. Summary To demonstrate causality, we stress the need for future epidemiologic studies integrating personal air pollution exposures, detailed clinical COVID-19 data, and a range of socioeconomic factors, as well as in vitro and in vivo mechanistic studies.

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A framework for research linking weather, climate and COVID-19

Cited by 51 publications

References 13 publications

Associations between meteorology and COVID-19 in early studies: Inconsistencies, uncertainties, and recommendations

Associations between meteorology and COVID-19 in early studies: Inconsistencies, uncertainties, and recommendations

Colder and drier winter conditions are associated with greater SARS-CoV-2 transmission: a regional study of the first epidemic wave in north-west hemisphere countries

Environmental Determinants of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

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