A Framework for Predicting Memory Errors with a Bayesian Model of Concept Generalization

Abstract

“Similarity” is often thought to dictate memory errors. For example, in visual memory, memory judgements of lures are related to their psychophysical similarity to targets: an approximately exponential function in stimulus space (Schurgin et al. 2020). However, similarity is ill-defined for more complex stimuli, and memory errors seem to depend on all the remembered items, not just pairwise similarity. Such effects can be captured by a model that views similarity as a byproduct of Bayesian generalization (Tenenbaum & Griffiths, 2001). Here we ask whether the propensity of people to generalize from a set to an item predicts memory errors to that item. We use the “number game” generalization task to collect human judgements about set membership for symbolic numbers and show that memory errors for numbers are consistent with these generalization judgements rather than pairwise similarity. These results suggest that generalization propensity, rather than “similarity”, drives memory errors.