A framework for identifying regional outbreak and spread of COVID-19 from one-minute population-wide surveys

Abstract

Coronavirus infection spreads in clusters and therefore early identification of these clusters is critical for slowing down the spread of the virus. Here, we propose that daily population-wide surveys that assess the development of symptoms caused by the virus could serve as a strategic and valuable tool for identifying such clusters to inform epidemiologists, public health officials, and policy makers. We show preliminary results from a survey of over 58,000 Israelis and call for an international consortium to extend this concept in order to develop predictive models. We expect such data to allow: Faster detection of spreading zones and patients; Obtaining a current snapshot of the number of people in each area who have developed symptoms; Predicting future spreading zones several days before an outbreak occurs; Evaluating the effectiveness of the various social distancing measures taken, and their contribution to reduce the number of symptomatic people. Such information can provide a valuable tool for decision makers to decide which areas need strengthening of social distancing measures and which areas can be relieved. Preliminary analysis shows that in neighborhoods with confirmed COVID-19 patient history, more responders report on COVID-19 associated symptoms, demonstrating the potential utility of our approach for detection of outbreaks. Researchers from other countries including the U.S, India, Italy, Spain, Germany, Mexico, Finland, Sweden, Norway and several others have adopted our approach and we are collaborating to further improve it. We call with urgency for other countries to join this international consortium, and to share methods and data collected from these daily, simple, one-minute surveys.

Building an international consortium for tracking coronavirus health status

“…In Israel, we developed Predict-Corona (https://coronaisrael.org/), a daily one-minute online survey in which respondents are asked to measure body temperature and report whether they experience any of the symptoms that were found to be common in patients with COVID-19 infection according to the existing literature. Within approximately 10 days of its launch, there have been over 300,000 responses, and we are already seeing the potential of this approach for detecting future outbreak regions (Figure 2) 3 .…”

Real-time spatial health surveillance: Mapping the UK COVID-19 epidemic

“…There has been a proliferation of mapped outputs related to the COVID-19 pandemic with policy makers and the general public equally concerned with tracking the pandemic. However, most of the published maps have been at a regional level [7] , [5] , [23] . Although valuable, these can mask localised hotspots as exemplified by the Leicester, UK outbreak.…”

“…Lockdowns governing the movement of the population and opening of shops and other facilities, initially imposed across the entire country on 23 rd March 2020 [4] , have been a key tool in the government's response to COVID-19. Since that date, detection of local variations in infection rates has been critical for controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 [5] , including ascertaining the level of required local public health response across the UK. A key example of this was the implementation of the first ’local lockdown’ in Leicester on 30th June 2020, in response to a cluster of COVID-19 accounting for approximately one in ten of all new disease cases across the country in the preceding week [6]…”

Geospatial digital monitoring of COVID-19 cases at high spatiotemporal resolution

“…In some countries, including China, Israel, Italy, Spain, the UK, and the USA, researchers have already developed enhanced COVID-19 epidemiological surveillance via daily cohort surveys that monitor citizens' symptoms while collecting personal and geographic information, yet at a lowered spatial resolution. 9 We aim to adapt such an approach locally by offering a participatory tool for population-wide rapid reporting of COVID-19-related symptoms, 10 guided by the advice of local policy makers and experts.…”