A Framework for Climate Risk Management Applied to a Uk Water Resource Problem

Abstract

Climate risk management is a new and evolving area and many decisions are likely to be affected by climate risks over the long‐term. This paper presents a decision‐making framework designed for managing climate alongside nonclimate risk factors. The framework describes a process that should help identify and manage these risks. It can be used to help decision‐makers answer questions about whether adaptation is required, and, if so, which measures should be implemented. Adaptive management is recommended as a useful approach for dealing with climate and other uncertainties. This paper describes an application of the framework to a water resources case study. Feedback from training workshops based on four different case studies suggests the framework provides at minimum a useful (post‐hoc) decision analysis tool. Potential users, who include planners, consultants and policy‐makers have been largely positive about the prospective utility of the framework.

Issues in the interpretation of climate model ensembles to inform decisions

“…Governments, individuals, industry and other organizations need to build climate change-related risks into their existing decision-making processes, with the aim of maximizing the long-term value of today's decisions. The approach of integrating climate information alongside other decision drivers is referred to as climate risk management (Connell et al 2005;Bouwer & Aerts 2006;Hellmuth et al 2007). Climate science has a role here in terms of the availability of observational records, the assessment of climatic vulnerabilities and the better utilization of weather and climate prediction services.…”

Water shortage risk evaluation and its primary cause: Empirical evidence from rural China

“…Based on this definition, water resource risk includes four factors: water resource system, unexpected events, harmful results, and tolerance capacity. These four factors can be further expressed as risk source, risk receptor, risk degree, and risk adaptation (Connell et al, 2005). The sources of risk for water shortage comprise external influences, which include both natural and anthropogenic factors.…”

Adapting to climate change impacts on water resources in England—An assessment of draft Water Resources Management Plans

“…A second group of studies explores methods for incorporating climate change into water management, both in terms of assessment techniques (e.g. New et al, 2007;Connell et al, 2005;Freas et al, 2008;Groves et al, 2008) and management approaches (e.g. Clark, 2002;Cohen et al, 2006;Ivey et al, 2004;Purkey et al, 2007).…”