A framework for assessing the economic impacts of Arctic change

Alvarez, Jimena; Yumashev, Dmitry; Whiteman, Gail

doi:10.1007/s13280-019-01211-z

Cited by 34 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 102 publications

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“…Although future climate projections in the area contain substantial variability, a study of 18 future projections to 2,039 showed continued temperature and precipitation increases and many are already being exceeded (Bonsal and Kochtubajda, 2009), with significant trends in deeper thaw penetration also noted from 1991-2016 (O'Neill et al, 2019). Recent concerns have centered on the potentially under-estimated (O'Rourke, 2017) and accelerating rates of coastal erosion in the area (Lantuit et al, 2012;Irrgang et al, 2018), and particularly the vulnerability of communities (Alvarez et al, 2020), infrastructure (Warren et al, 2005), ecosystems (Waugh et al, 2018) and significant archaeological sites across the Inuvialuit area (O'Rourke, 2017).…”

Section: Field Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

Effective Monitoring of Permafrost Coast Erosion: Wide-scale Storm Impacts on Outer Islands in the Mackenzie Delta Area

et al. 2020

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Permafrost coasts are extensive in scale and complex in nature, resulting in particular challenges for understanding how they respond to both long-term shifts in climate and short-term extreme weather events. Taking examples from the Canadian Beaufort Sea coastline characterized by extensive areas of massive ground ice within slump and block failure complexes, we conduct a quantitative analysis of the practical performance of helicopter-based photogrammetry. The results demonstrate that large scale (>1 km 2) surface models can be achieved at comparable accuracy to standard unmanned aerial vehicle surveys, but 36 times faster. Large scale models have greater potential for progressive alignment and contrast issues and so breaking down image sequences into coherent chunks has been found the most effective technique for accurate landscape reconstructions. The approach has subsequently been applied in a responsive acquisition immediately before and after a large storm event and during conditions (wind gusts >50 km h −1) that would have prohibited unmanned aerial vehicle data acquisition. Trading lower resolution surface models for large scale coverage and more effective responsive monitoring, the helicopter-based data have been applied to assess storm driven-change across the exposed outer islands of the Mackenzie Delta area for the first time. These data show that the main storm impacts were concentrated on exposed North orientated permafrost cliff sections (particularly low cliffs, >20 m in height) where cliff recession was 43% of annual rates and in places up to 29% of the annual site-wide erosion volume was recorded in this single event. In contrast, the thaw-slump complexes remained relatively unaffected, debris flow fans were generally more resistant to storm erosion than the icerich cliffs, perhaps due to the relatively low amounts of precipitation that occurred. Therefore, the variability of permafrost coast erosion rates is controlled by interactions between both the forcing conditions and local response mechanisms. Helicopter-based photogrammetric surveys have the potential to effectively analyze these controls with greater spatial and temporal consistency across more representative scales and resolutions than has previously been achieved, improving the capacity to adequately constrain and ultimately project future Arctic coast sensitivity.

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Section: Field Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

Effective Monitoring of Permafrost Coast Erosion: Wide-scale Storm Impacts on Outer Islands in the Mackenzie Delta Area

et al. 2020

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“…Other models in the literature that estimate total GDP impact due to climate change have been criticized for not effectively resolving the contribution of cold weather variables 16 , 17 , 28 . Such models generally show GDP to decrease 17 , or increase minimally 11 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Financial stability in response to climate change in a northern temperate economy

2021

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Climate change will have considerable impact on the global economy. Estimates of the economic damages due to climate change have focused on the effect of average temperature, but not the effect of other important climate variables. Related research has not explored the sub-annual economic cycles which may be impacted by climate volatility. To address these deficits, we propose a flexible, non-linear framework which includes a wide range of climate variables to estimate changes in GDP and project sub-annual economic cycle adjustments (period, amplitude, trough depth). We find that the inclusion of a more robust set of climate variables improves model performance by over 20%. Importantly, the improved model predicts an increase in GDP rather than a decrease when only temperature is considered. We also find that climate influences the sub-annual economics of all but one province in Canada. Highest stressed were the Prairie and Atlantic regions. Least stressed was the Southeastern region. Our study advances understanding of the nuances in the relationship between climate change and economic output in Canada. It also provides a method that can be applied to related economies globally to target adaptation and resilience management.

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“…Increased security developments in the region are coming up at a crucial juncture when the regional indigenous communities and non-Arctic states (both European and Asian) are confronting with various challenges of human–environment– ecological context from this region. Asian states, such as India, Singapore, Japan, South Korea and China, are at direct environmental vulnerabilities that may erupt from the region in near future (Alvarez et al, 2019). Analysing the emerging complex interplay of environment, geopolitics and emerging socio-economic issues, it can be argued that the Arctic could not afford to become an arena of re-securitisation and strategic competition between the Arctic five.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

‘De-Securitising the Arctic’ in Climate Change: An Indian Perspective

Sharma

2021

India Quarterly

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The rapidly transforming Arctic has led to rethink the concept of security in the region. The increasing global warming and opening up of the Arctic have brought multiple geopolitical issues before the Arctic and non-Arctic states. 1 In pursuit of their perceived geopolitical, geo-economics and strategic interests, a race to ‘securitise the Arctic’ has started amongst the major Arctic states. This process of securitisation appears to be dictated and driven not only by traditional military-strategic considerations but also by non-traditional security threat dilemmas related to energy, environment, sustainability, human security, connectivity, etc. As the old and the new Arctic challenges are being taken out of the realm of ‘normal politics’ and placed in the contested domain of ‘security politics’, the Asian states, that are directly or indirectly impacted by the changing Arctic, realise that securitisation of the Arctic is leaving little space for addressing common issues of global concern. This study argues that all these emerging issues (otherwise perceived as ‘security threats’) in the Arctic, instead of being addressed in the securitisation framework, could and should be approached and addressed as compelling reasons for mutual cooperation and thus in need of de-securitisation.

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A framework for assessing the economic impacts of Arctic change

Cited by 34 publications

References 102 publications

Effective Monitoring of Permafrost Coast Erosion: Wide-scale Storm Impacts on Outer Islands in the Mackenzie Delta Area

Effective Monitoring of Permafrost Coast Erosion: Wide-scale Storm Impacts on Outer Islands in the Mackenzie Delta Area

Financial stability in response to climate change in a northern temperate economy

‘De-Securitising the Arctic’ in Climate Change: An Indian Perspective

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