A Framework Analyzing Climate Change, Air Quality and Greenery to Unveil Environmental Stress Risk Hotspots

Abstract

Rapid urbanization has resulted in increased environmental challenges, compounding worries about deteriorating air quality and rising temperatures. As cities become hubs of human activity, understanding the complex interplay of numerous environmental elements is critical for developing effective mitigation solutions. Recognizing this urgency, a framework to highlight the hotspots with critical environmental issues emerges as a comprehensive approach that incorporates key criteria such as the surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII), heat index (HI) and air quality index (AQI) to assess and address the complex web of environmental stressors that grip urban landscapes. Employing the multicriteria decision analysis approach, the proposed framework, named the environmental risk hotspot mapping framework (ERHMF), innovatively applies the analytic hierarchy process at a sub-criteria level, considering long-term heat island trends with recent fluctuations in the HI and AQI. Climate change impact has been symbolized through rising temperatures, as reflected by surface urban heat island intensity trends over two decades. The robustness and correctness of the weights have been assessed by computing the consistency ratio, which came out as 0.046, 0.065 and 0.044 for the sub-criteria of the SUHII, AQI and HI, respectively. Furthermore, the framework delves into the nexus between environmental stressors and vegetation cover, elucidating the role of green spaces in mitigating urban environmental risks. Augmented by spatial and demographic data, the ERHMF adeptly discerns high-risk areas where environmental stress converges with urban development, vulnerable population concentrations and critical vegetation status, thereby facilitating targeted risk management interventions. The framework’s effectiveness has been demonstrated in a regional case study in Italy, underscoring its ability to pinpoint risk hotspots and inform specific policy interventions. The quantitative study undertaken at the sub-administrative level revealed that approximately 6,000,000 m2 of land in Bologna are classified as being under high to extremely high environmental stress, with over 4,000,000 m2 lying only within the extremely high stress group (90–100). Similarly, 1,000,000 m2 of land in Piacenza and Modena have high levels of environmental stress (80–90). In conclusion, the ERHMF presents a holistic methodology for delineating high-risk urban hotspots, providing essential insights for policymakers, urban planners and stakeholders, with the potential to enhance overall urban resilience and foster sustainable development efforts.