A fragile and divided European Union meets Covid-19: further disintegration or ‘Hamiltonian moment’?

Abstract

Despite being symmetric in its very nature, the Covid-19 shock is affecting European economies in a very asymmetric way, threatening to deepen the divide between core and peripheral countries even more. It is not Covid-19 itself, however, but the contradictions within the EU's growth model and institutional architecture that would be to blame for such an outcome. The dramatic impact of the economic crisis brought on by the pandemic and the threat that it poses to Eurozone survival seem to have forced a reluctant Germany into action: a minor step, but an important signal. This note analyses the crossroads currently facing Europe-the risk of disintegration visa -vis the opportunity for a 'Hamiltonian moment'-discussing possible future scenarios in the light of past developments.

Theorizing institutional change and governance in European responses to the Covid-19 pandemic

“…In the negotiations, new intergovernmentalists would focus not only on the innovative ideas generated by the Franco-German couple versus the 'old' ideas of the Frugal Four but also on the persuasive ability of various leaders to move discussions forward. For the German shift in position, the ideas and discourse of French President Macron are particularly relevant, given his passionate pleas for a massive, coordinated EU response to such an unprecedented symmetric shock, in which no one was to blame, and some member-states were hit so much harder than others (Celi, Guarascio, and Simonazzi 2020). But other leaders were also important.…”

COVID-19 Is Examining the EU and the Member States: The Role of Attitudes and Sociodemographic Factors on Citizens’ Support Towards National Policies

“…Amat et al (2020) contend that the response to the pandemic has been mostly handled at national level, and that the leadership of the EU has not existed, and even competition among member states to buy in the stressed medical supplies market has existed. Similarly, the pandemic has brought to light an important feature of the divisive union regarding the capacity to respond to the health crisis (Celi et al, 2020). Unfortunately, we cannot compare our results regarding the country differences obtained, as to our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing multi-national responses.…”

Unequal societies in usual times, unjust societies in pandemic ones

“…With respect to the former, the Eurozone has revealed to be more an inequality-enhancing channel rather than an inequality-curbing one, particularly via the austerity policies. This is true both in terms of structural factors, like patterns of industrial composition, sectoral diversification and integration in global value chains, wages and social support schemes, but also of public expenditure in health and education, with a northern core, led by Germany, and a peripheral south choked by the cost of public debt and the slackening of the industrial structure (Celi et al 2020).…”