A Forest Simulation Model for Predicting Eucalypt Dynamics and Habitat Quality for Arboreal Marsupials

Abstract

A forest simulation model (called EDEN) of eucalypt dynamics in southeastern Australia is presented to predict habitat quality for arboreal marsupials. The model is presented as a tool for testing alternative hypotheses of forest management in the study area. EDEN uses a forest gap simulation (JABOWA/FORET type) model as a pattern generator of habitat in different landscape positions and under different harvesting regimes and predicts the habitat quality of this habitat for arboreal marsupials. Application of the model is illustrated by simulating four environmental scenarios (gullies and ridges, at low and at high soil nutrient levels) and three harvesting regimes for each environmental scenario (no harvesting, low‐intensity harvesting, and high‐intensity harvesting). The changes in tree species composition and diversity and the changes in habitat quality for the arboreal marsupials are presented for the 12 scenarios. The predicted vegetation composition is different in the different environmental scenarios and agrees with empirical studies, suggesting that EDEN is a useful pattern generator in the study area. The simulation results suggest that there may be a harvesting level for which the habitat quality is not significatively reduced, but this will depend on the landscape position. The decline in habitat quality with increasing harvesting is stronger on ridges than in gullies.

Modelling the potential impact of climate variability and change on species regeneration potential in the temperate forests of South‐Eastern Australia

“…Parameters were based on two empirical studies (Fraser, 2009;Hirst, 2010), peer-reviewed studies and government research reports (for specific literature references of species parameters, see Supporting Information Table S2 in the online supporting material). Habitat niche elements, as defined by GDD parameters, were calculated following Pausas et al (1997) using two independent databases: (1) the Royal Botanical Garden's (RBG) Virtual Herbarium database (Mathews & Bonser, 2005;RGB, 2011) and (2) a BIOCLIM (Nix, 1986;Busby, 1991) -Statewide Forest Resource Inventory (SFRI) correlation analysis within ArcGIS 9.2 (Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), 2006). The GDD range for each species was expanded following the recommendation by Loehle & LeBlanc (1996).…”

Effects of New Forest Management Strategies on Squirrel Populations

“…Most studies of the environmental effects of forest management have focused on the short-term (Ͻ5 yr) effects of particular silvicultural practices, such as clear-cutting or other harvest methods (Hooven and Black 1976, LaMothe 1980, Hayes et al 1995, Waters and Zabel 1995, Von Treba et al 1998; herbicide application (Slagsvold 1977, Cole et al 1998, Easton and Martin 1998; intermediate partial harvests, such as thinning (Conroy et al 1982, Carey et al 1996b, Hagar et al 1996; or more general broadscale comparisons of old growth and second growth (e.g., Carey 1995, Carey and Johnson 1995, Bobiec 1998. Simulations of alternative management strategies based on broad-scale data, suggest ecologically significant differences among alternative strategies (e.g., Carey et al 1996a, 1999b, Pausas et al 1997. While heuristic, simulations are merely examinations of the simulators' assumptions and inferences drawn from correlative retrospective studies (e.g., Carey 1998b).…”

Simulating anthropogenic impacts to bird communities in tropical rain forests

“…Models which simulated potential habitats, habitat quality or which modelled only vegetation dynamics (Smith et al, 1981b;Pausas et al, 1997) could not resolve the dynamics of species richness. One result of our study was that even within the fixed habitat distribution of a primary forest, the population dynamics of individual bird species still fluctuated strongly and the species composition changed over time (Fig.…”

“…Other modelling concepts have been restricted to the landscape matrix and approximated habitat dynamics or habitat quality of various fauna communities (Smith et al, 1981a, 1981b, Pausas et al, 1997. On a regional scale impacts of ongoing deforestation in the tropics on bird communities have been estimated (Brooks et al, 1999a, Manne et al, 1999.…”

“…Pausas et al, 1997) cannot reveal population dynamics or changes in species richness. Will the species composition in mature forests be stable and fixed, or will further species extinction occur in a primary forest?…”