A forecast of staple crop production in Burkina Faso to enable early warnings of shortages in domestic food availability

Laudien, Rahel; Schauberger, Bernhard; Waid, Jillian L.; Gornott, Christoph

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-05561-9

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Maize, millet, sorghum, and cowpeas are the major staple crops grown on about 80% of the arable land in Burkina Faso. These crops account for 61% of the total household calorie intake and food security (Laudien et al., 2022; Reardon et al., 1992). We anticipate that any decrease in the output of these crops owing to terrorist incidents would likely lead to reduced household food availability, dietary diversity, and food security.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Armed conflicts and household food insecurity: Effects and mechanisms

Kafando,

Sakurai

2024

Agricultural Economics

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Despite extensive studies on the effects of armed conflict on household dietary diversity, food security, and nutritional outcomes, the underlying pathways remain underexplored. A better understanding of these mechanisms could unpack the subsequent effects of conflict‐induced food insecurity and oft‐reported nutritional shortcoming, as well as identify which policy interventions hold promise. We study the effects of terrorist violence in Burkina Faso on household dietary diversity, as proxied by food consumption scores (FCS), and investigate the underlying mechanisms. For this purpose, we combine nationally representative 5‐years panel data on households with spatial conflict data. We find negative and significant effects of conflict intensity on household food consumption scores. The decline in household FCS is a result of significant decreased dietary diversity in both food production and purchases. Although households in rural areas partially offset these reductions by food assistance, those reliant solely on farming as livelihoods remain the most affected. Further investigations show evidence that per‐capita farm income and food expenditure are pathways linking the intensity of armed conflict to reduced FCS in food purchases, whereas reduced dietary diversity in food production results from decline in crop production. Additional specification tests support our main findings, offering insights that can help policymakers faced with similar scaled‐armed conflicts. For instance, conflict‐sensitive interventions aimed at supporting crop production and farm income for affected households could effectively improve their dietary diversity and overall food security in a post‐conflict environment.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Armed conflicts and household food insecurity: Effects and mechanisms

Kafando,

Sakurai

2024

Agricultural Economics

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“…Livelihood activities in the Sudano-Guinean belt are mainly determined by rainfed agriculture with a low level of mechanization. Over recent decades, farmland has massively increased to meet the demand of a rising population with annual growth rates of around 3% [33][34][35]. At the same time, intensification practices such as agricultural soil and water conservation practices have enhanced crop production.…”

Section: Study Areasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agricultural Yield Responses to Climate Variabilities in West Africa: A Food Supply and Demand Analysis

Schultze,

Kankam,

Sanfo

et al. 2024

Land

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Agricultural productivity is expected to decrease under changing climate conditions that correspond to the stability of West African food systems. Although numerous studies have evaluated impacts of climate variability on crop yields, many uncertainties are still associated with climate extremes as well as the rapid population growth and corresponding dietary lifestyle. Here, we present a food supply and demand analysis based on the relationship between climate change, crop production, and population growth in three sites from southwestern Burkina Faso to southwestern Ghana. Climate and agricultural time series were analyzed by using boxplots mixed with a Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope. Food balance sheets were calculated by estimating the demand using a population growth model linked to food supply with local consumption patterns. We found almost insignificant rainfall and temperature trends for both sites in the Sudano-Guinean savannah. Conversely, the climate regime of southwestern Ghana revealed a strong significant increasing temperature over time. Crop yield trends demonstrated that maize and sorghum were significantly enhanced in both study areas of the Sudano-Guinean savannah. Southwestern Ghana depicted a different crop pattern where cassava and plantain showed a strong upward yield trend. The grouped food balance sheets across the regions illustrated a surplus for the Sudano-Guinean savannah while southwestern Ghana exhibited a deficit. Despite the growing yield of various crops, food demand is outpacing regional production.

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“…ERA5 has been used in several climate and health studies. Topics include the exposure of human populations to heatwaves and droughts (Chambers, 2020; Zhang et al, 2021), heat‐related mortality (de Schrijver et al, 2021; Royé et al, 2020; Urban et al, 2021), heat‐related labour loss and productivity (Dasgupta et al, 2021; Kong & Huber, 2022; Parsons et al, 2021), mental health (Florido Ngu et al, 2021) and food insecurity in terrestrial and marine systems (Dasgupta & Robinson, 2022; Laudien et al, 2022; McGlue et al, 2020; Post et al, 2021; Shettigar et al, 2020; Verschuur et al, 2021; Zhou et al, 2021). These ERA5‐based research topics align with those addressed and tracked by Lancet Countdown indicators.…”

Section: Global Climate Reanalysis In the Lancet Countdownmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of global reanalyses in climate services for health: Insights from the Lancet Countdown

Napoli

Romanello

Minor

et al. 2023

Meteorological Applications

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As the linkages between extreme weather events, changes in climatic conditions and health impacts in exposed populations become clearer, so does the need for climate‐smart decisions aimed at making the public health sector more responsive and resilient. By integrating climate and health information, climate services for health provide robust decision‐support tools. The Lancet Countdown monitoring system uses global climate reanalyses products to track annual changes in a set of health‐related outcomes. In the monitoring system, multiple variables from reanalysis datasets such as ERA5 and ERA5‐Land are retrieved and processed to capture heatwaves, precipitation extremes, wildfires, droughts, warming and ecosystem changes across the globe and over multiple decades. This reanalysis‐derived information is then input into a hazard–exposure–vulnerability framework that delivers, as outcomes, indicators tracking the year‐by‐year impacts of climate‐related hazards on human mortality, labour capacity, physical activity, sentiment, infectious disease transmission, and food security and undernutrition. Building on the reanalysis gridded format, the indicators create worldwide ‘maps without gaps’ of climate–health linkages. Our experience shows that reanalysis datasets allow standardization across the climate information used in the framework, making the system potentially adaptable to multiple geographical scales. An ongoing challenge is to quantify how the inherent bias of global reanalyses influences indicator outcomes. We foresee the health sector as a key user of reanalysis products. Therefore, public health professionals and health impact modellers should be involved in the co‐development of future iterations of reanalysis datasets, to reach finer spatial resolutions and provide a wider set of health‐relevant climate variables.

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A forecast of staple crop production in Burkina Faso to enable early warnings of shortages in domestic food availability

Cited by 15 publications

References 34 publications

Armed conflicts and household food insecurity: Effects and mechanisms

Armed conflicts and household food insecurity: Effects and mechanisms

Agricultural Yield Responses to Climate Variabilities in West Africa: A Food Supply and Demand Analysis

The role of global reanalyses in climate services for health: Insights from the Lancet Countdown

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