25Genetic changes in the dengue virus (DENV) genome affects viral fitness both clinically and 26 epidemiologically. Even in the 3' untranslated region (3'UTR), mutations could impact the 27 formation of subgenomic flaviviral RNA (sfRNA) and the specificity of sfRNA in inhibiting host 28 proteins necessary for successful viral replication. Indeed, we have recently shown that 29 mutations in the 3'UTR of DENV2 affected its ability to inhibit TRIM25 E3 ligase activity to 30 reduce interferon (IFN) expression, which potentially contributed to the emergence of a new 31 viral clade during the 1994 dengue epidemic in Puerto Rico. However, whether differences in 32 3'UTRs shaped DENV evolution on a larger scale remains incompletely understood. Herein, 33 we combined RNA phylogeny with phylogenetics to gain insights on sfRNA evolution. We 34 found that sfRNA structures are under purifying selection and highly conserved despite 35 sequence divergence. Interestingly, only the second flaviviral Nuclease-resistant RNA (fNR2) 36 structure of DENV-2 has undergone strong positive selection. Epidemiological reports also 37 suggest that nucleotide substitutions in fNR2 may drive DENV-2 epidemiological fitness, 38 possibly through sfRNA-protein interactions. Collectively, our findings indicate that 3'UTRs are 39 important determinants of DENV fitness in human-mosquito cycles. 40 Keywords: 41 dengue virus; sfRNA; epidemiological fitness; ncRNA evolution 42Introduction. 43 Dengue virus (DENV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne viral disease globally. An 44 estimated 100 million cases of acute dengue occur annually, some of which develop into life-45 threatening severe dengue (Bhatt et al., 2013). DENV exists as four antigenically distinct but 46 genetically related viruses (DENV1 to 4), all of which can cause the full spectrum of disease 47 outcome. A tetravalent dengue vaccine has been licensed in several countries for use to 48 prevent dengue. However, its protective efficacy varied across the four serotypes of DENV and 49 long-term protection was only observed in older children with at least one episode of prior 50 DENV infection (Hadinegoro et al., 2015). Thus, despite application of this vaccine and current 51 approaches to vector control, DENV will likely continue to be a major public health challenge 52 in the coming years.
53Dengue is distributed throughout the tropics and is now encroaching into the subtropical 54 regions of the world, causing frequent and recurrent epidemics (Messina et al., 2016).
55Whereas several of these epidemics were caused by fluctuations in the relative prevalence of 56 the DENV serotypes in a background of low herd serotype-specific immunity, genetic 57 differences in DENV also appears to play a distinct role in epidemic emergence (OhAinle et 58 al., 2011). Indeed, we showed that the 3' untranslated region (3'UTR) of DENV genome 59 contributes to the epidemiological fitness of DENV, both through its interaction with human 60 (Manokaran et al., 2015). Nucleotide substitu...