A Five-Year Study of Influenza in Families Joint Public Health Laboratory Service/Royal College of General Practitioners Working Group

Mann, P. G.; Pereira, M. S.; Smith, J. W. G.; Hart, Roger; Williams, W. T.; Dunhill, B.

doi:10.1017/s0022172400069400

Cited by 13 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 12 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This scenario assumes a clinical attack rate, in the absence of interventions, of 25% of the population, which occurs during a single wave. Assuming that half of infections are nonclinical or asymptomatic (i.e., a serologic attack rate across the population of 50%) ( 25 ), a value for the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 1.39 can be calculated. When these parameters are used in the model in the Appendix, the effect of different-sized antiviral stockpiles on the overall clinical attack rate can be estimated.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Impact of Antiviral Drug Use during Influenza Pandemic

Gani¹,

Hughes²,

Fleming

et al. 2005

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

190

172

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The recent spread of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza has highlighted the threat posed by pandemic influenza. In the early phases of a pandemic, the only treatment available would be neuraminidase inhibitors, which many countries are considering stockpiling for pandemic use. We estimate the effect on hospitalization rates of using different antiviral stockpile sizes to treat infection. We estimate that stockpiles that cover 20%-25% of the population would be sufficient to treat most of the clinical cases and could lead to 50% to 77% reductions in hospitalizations. Substantial reductions in hospitalization could be achieved with smaller antiviral stockpiles if drugs are reserved for persons at high risk.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Impact of Antiviral Drug Use during Influenza Pandemic

Gani¹,

Hughes²,

Fleming

et al. 2005

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

190

172

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…With regard to CAR, the literature review reported data ranging from 0 to 50%. Nevertheless, since the maximum value of 50% refers to the extreme value reported during the 1889 'Russian' pandemic [13, [35][36][37][38][39], this value was excluded and, therefore, CAR maximum value was set at 35%.…”

Section: Definition Of Severity Profiles and Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of human influenza pandemic scenarios in Europe

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The response to the emergence of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic was the result of a decade of pandemic planning, largely centred on the threat of an avian influenza A(H5N1) pandemic. Based on a literature review, this study aims to define a set of new pandemic scenarios that could be used in case of a future influenza pandemic. A total of 338 documents were identified using a searching strategy based on seven combinations of keywords. Eighty-three of these documents provided useful information on the 13 virusrelated and health-system-related parameters initially considered for describing scenarios. Among these, four parameters were finally selected (clinical attack rate, case fatality rate, hospital admission rate, and intensive care admission rate) and four different levels of severity for each of them were set. The definition of six most likely scenarios results from the combination of four different levels of severity of the four final parameters (256 possible scenarios). Although it has some limitations, this approach allows for more flexible scenarios and hence it is far from the classic scenarios structure used for pandemic plans until 2009.

show abstract

“…In contrast, Hope-Simpson, using viral isolates obtained over 8 years, found low attack rates within households, a high proportion of affected households with only one influenza case (70%), and no demonstrable serial interval [ 66 ]. A five-year serological surveillance study found that 73% of family members who get influenza get it on the first day and are apparent index cases [ 67 ]. They could not identify a serial interval.…”

Section: What Is the Serial Interval For Influenza?mentioning

confidence: 99%

On the epidemiology of influenza

Cannell

Zasloff

Garland

et al. 2008

Virol J

181

171

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The epidemiology of influenza swarms with incongruities, incongruities exhaustively detailed by the late British epidemiologist, Edgar Hope-Simpson. He was the first to propose a parsimonious theory explaining why influenza is, as Gregg said, "seemingly unmindful of traditional infectious disease behavioral patterns." Recent discoveries indicate vitamin D upregulates the endogenous antibiotics of innate immunity and suggest that the incongruities explored by Hope-Simpson may be secondary to the epidemiology of vitamin D deficiency. We identify -and attempt to explainnine influenza conundrums: (1) Why is influenza both seasonal and ubiquitous and where is the virus between epidemics? (2) Why are the epidemics so explosive? (3) Why do they end so abruptly? (4) What explains the frequent coincidental timing of epidemics in countries of similar latitude? (5) Why is the serial interval obscure? (6) Why is the secondary attack rate so low? (7) Why did epidemics in previous ages spread so rapidly, despite the lack of modern transport? (8) Why does experimental inoculation of seronegative humans fail to cause illness in all the volunteers? (9) Why has influenza mortality of the aged not declined as their vaccination rates increased? We review recent discoveries about vitamin D's effects on innate immunity, human studies attempting sick-to-well transmission, naturalistic reports of human transmission, studies of serial interval, secondary attack rates, and relevant animal studies. We hypothesize that two factors explain the nine conundrums: vitamin D's seasonal and population effects on innate immunity, and the presence of a subpopulation of "good infectors." If true, our revision of Edgar Hope-Simpson's theory has profound implications for the prevention of influenza.

show abstract

A Five-Year Study of Influenza in Families Joint Public Health Laboratory Service/Royal College of General Practitioners Working Group

Cited by 13 publications

References 12 publications

Potential Impact of Antiviral Drug Use during Influenza Pandemic

Potential Impact of Antiviral Drug Use during Influenza Pandemic

Assessment of human influenza pandemic scenarios in Europe

On the epidemiology of influenza

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About