A field study of acute dynamic risk assessment in individuals convicted of sexual offenses.

Abstract

Acute dynamic risk factors can change over short periods of time, even within days or hours. When making risk assessments of individuals convicted of sexual offenses, it is necessary to consider this rapidity of change, in order to monitor appropriately the recidivism risk and to prevent future crimes. Until now, there is only one instrument-the Acute-2007-which assesses acute risk factors in individuals convicted of sexual offenses. However, the current state of research about its psychometric properties is still limited. The aim of the present study was to examine the German version of the Acute-2007 in a final sample of N = 534 adult male individuals convicted of a sexual offense in Germany. Within a prospective-longitudinal field study, appropriately trained parole officers used the Acute-2007 directly after a case was allocated to them. By using an average follow-up period of M = 3.83 years, recidivism data were drawn from the Federal Central Criminal Register of the Federal Office of Justice. Results revealed that the Acute-2007 predicted moderately general (AUC = .64), sexual (AUC = .64), and violent (AUC = .64) recidivism. By using Cox regression analysis, the Acute-2007 significantly predicted the time periods until a sexual reoffense. Furthermore, the Acute-2007 added incremental predictive validity beyond the Static-99 in the prediction of sexual recidivism. Taken together, the results of the present study support the relevance of acute dynamic risk factors in risk assessment and management of individuals convicted of sexual offenses. Public Significance StatementIn order to prevent sexual offenses, it is crucial to develop instruments, which could assess the risk of reoffending in individuals already convicted of sexual offenses. The present results confirmed previous research, which has provided repeatedly evidence for the importance of unchangeable static risk factors. Furthermore, the relevance of rapidly changing acute dynamic risk factors, which have been much less researched until now, could be also supported.

A comparison of the predictive accuracy of structured and unstructured risk assessment methods for the prediction of recidivism in individuals convicted of sexual and violent offense.

“…Finally, in order to be able to contrast a “pure” actuarial risk assessment approach with other assessment methods, it was necessary to score the VRAG-R retrospectively and to compare these retrospective assessment results with the prospectively made assessments of the expert witness reports. However, as previously published studies about second-generation ARAIs indicated (e.g., Nitsche et al, 2022; Rettenberger et al, 2013;Rettenberger, Rice, et al, 2017), the predictive accuracy of this actuarial approach yielded comparable results independently of the applied research design (i.e., if a retrospective of a prospective data collection procedures was used).…”

“…witness reports. However, as previously published studies about second-generation ARAIs indicated (e.g., Nitsche et al, 2022;Rettenberger et al, 2013;Rettenberger, Rice, et al, 2017), the predictive accuracy of this actuarial approach yielded comparable results independently of the applied research design (i.e., if a retrospective of a prospective data collection procedures was used).…”

“…Confounding variables of assessors themselves may further explain differences in accuracy of risk assessments, so it may be a promising approach to control for different assessor characteristics in futures studies. Methodologically, experimental designs including a random assignment to a specific approach and the use of prospective–longitudinal field study designs would be the best way for (cross-)validating risk assessment approaches and instruments (e.g., Nitsche et al, 2022; Rettenberger, Rice, et al, 2017). However, particularly experimental research approaches can be accompanied by serious ethical conflicts and legal issues.…”

ACUTE-2007 and STABLE-2007 predict recidivism for men adjudicated for child sexual exploitation material offending.

“…The items are considered to represent high-risk situations and the current expressions of chronic, risk-relevant factors (Fernandez et al, 2014). The ACUTE-2007 predicts sexual, violent, and any recidivism and adds discriminative ability above that of static risk tools (Hanson et al, 2007; Nitsche et al, 2022). Change in ACUTE-2007 total scores are associated with changes in the likelihood of sexual, violent, and general recidivism (Babchishin & Hanson, 2020; Lee et al, 2023).…”

Understanding the Risk of Sexual Reoffending in Adult Men: A Network-Based Model

“…The risk of sexual reoffending is dynamic in nature and varies over time and across contexts (Babchishin & Hanson, 2020;Lussier et al, 2020;Olver & Stockdale, 2020;Nitsche et al, 2022). The NBM-RSR assumes that risk of sexual reoffending:…”