A Feasibility Study for Probabilistic Convection Initiation Forecasts Based on Explicit Numerical Guidance

Kain, John S.; Coniglio, Michael C.; Correia, James; Clark, Adam J.; Marsh, Patrick T.; Ziegler, Conrad L.; Lakshmanan, Valliappa; Miller, Stuart D.; Dembek, Scott R.; Weiss, Steven J.; Kong, Fanyou; Xue, Ming; Sobash, Ryan A.; Dean, Andrew R.; Jirak, Israel L.; Melick, Christopher J.

doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00264.1

Cited by 87 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 42 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Both model and initial condition errors can cause such an error, but we suspect excessive mountain thermal forcing as a cause. In general, predicting the initiation and evolution of individual convective cells is more difficult to achieve than for mesoscale convective systems, as pointed out by Kain et al (2013). Because the main goal of this study is to investigate the physical processes responsible for the CI, rather than to obtain the most accurate forecast, we feel that the timing error, while not desirable, does not greatly affect our analysis of the physical processes.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 93%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Convective initiation by topographically induced convergence forcing over the Dabie Mountains on 24 June 2010

2016

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The initiation of convective cells in the late morning of 24 June 2010 along the eastward extending ridge of the Dabie Mountains in the Anhui region, China, is studied through numerical simulations that include local data assimilation. A primary convergence line is found over the ridge of the Dabie Mountains, and along the ridge line several locally enhanced convergence centers preferentially initiate convection. Three processes responsible for creating the overall convergence pattern are identified. First, thermally-driven upslope winds induce convergence zones over the main mountain peaks along the ridge, which are shifted slightly downwind in location by the moderate low-level easterly flow found on the north side of a Mei-yu front. Second, flows around the main mountain peaks along the ridge create further convergence on the lee side of the peaks. Third, upslope winds develop along the roughly north-south oriented valleys on both sides of the ridge due to thermal and dynamic channeling effects, and create additional convergence between the peaks along the ridge. The superposition of the above convergence features creates the primary convergence line along the ridge line of the Dabie Mountains. Locally enhanced convergence centers on the primary line cause the initiation of the first convection cells along the ridge. These conclusions are supported by two sensitivity experiments in which the environmental wind (dynamic forcing) or radiative and land surface thermal forcing are removed, respectively. Overall, the thermal forcing effects are stronger than dynamic forcing given the relatively weak environmental flow.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…Complex terrain plays important roles in the initiation and organization of convection (e.g., Rotunno and Houze, 2007;Wulfmeyer et al, 2008;Houze, 2012;Kain et al, 2013;Trier et al, 2015;Worthington, 2015;Zhao, 2015). For strong airflows encountering complex terrain, dynamic forcing can be strong enough to cause convective initiation (CI).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Convective initiation by topographically induced convergence forcing over the Dabie Mountains on 24 June 2010

2016

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Preliminary analysis (Fig. SB1) shows that the forecasters were more confident issuing higher-probability fore- CPMs, reveal significant errors in CI timing and location (Kain et al 2013), system duration, and QPF, in particular during the night in the PECAN region, even over short forecast periods (Pinto et al 2015).…”

mentioning

confidence: 97%

The 2015 Plains Elevated Convection at Night Field Project

Geerts

Parsons

Ziegler

et al. 2017

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Self Cite

211

193

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The temporal and the spatial thresholds used to identify isolated CI events are similar to recent studies, including those that have automatically detected CI in sequences of reflectivity images (e.g. Weckwerth et al, 2011;Kain et al, 2013;Burghardt et al, 2014;Clark et al, 2014;Fabry and Cazenave, 2014;and Lock and Houston, 2014).…”

Section: Thunderstorm Day Definitionmentioning

confidence: 85%

The effect of reservoirs on the climatology of warm-season thunderstorms in Southeast Texas, USA

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ABSTRACT:Although ample research suggests that urban environments and their associated land use/land cover modify convective precipitation patterns, little research has explored the role of human-made bodies of water -artificial reservoirs -on thunderstorm climatology. This study provides the first radar-derived climatological analysis of the impact of artificial reservoirs on warm-season convective initiation (CI) and associated thunderstorms. An area centred on three large reservoirs in Southeast Texas is examined to explore how the artificial bodies of water influence the spatiotemporal nature of deep, moist convection. A thunderstorm day and CI climatology for the study domain is constructed utilizing composite radar reflectivity data from 1997 to 2013. The results illustrate enhanced (reduced) convective activity on the edges of (atop) the reservoirs. The presence of the reservoirs also induced increased variability in thunderstorm occurrence compared to areas with no reservoirs. In addition, spatial analytical testing yields statistically significant higher densities of CI events on the southern shores of the reservoirs. Evidence that relatively small bodies of water can influence regional convective patterns and modify the risk of thunderstorm hazards is presented.

show abstract

A Feasibility Study for Probabilistic Convection Initiation Forecasts Based on Explicit Numerical Guidance

Abstract: For practical purposes, the convection initiation forecasting challenge should be franned in terms of the initiation of mesoscale convective events rather than the formation^^, and Hrov\/th of individual cumulonimbus clouds.

Cited by 87 publications

References 42 publications

Convective initiation by topographically induced convergence forcing over the Dabie Mountains on 24 June 2010

Convective initiation by topographically induced convergence forcing over the Dabie Mountains on 24 June 2010

The 2015 Plains Elevated Convection at Night Field Project

The effect of reservoirs on the climatology of warm-season thunderstorms in Southeast Texas, USA

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About