A dynamic specification of an AIDS import allocation model

Abstract

In this paper we use the first-order autoregressive scheme in order to introduce dynamics into the AIDS model. We also consider the theoretical restrictions of additivity, homogeneity and symmetry, and use two different specifications of the covariance matrix. We estimate the models using import allocation data for the U< 1952-1979 of five EEC countries and test different specifications against each other. Contents page 1. Introduction 2. 2. Specification of the models 3 3. Specifications of the covariance matrix and some tests 3.1. Specifications of the covariance matrix 6 3.2. Testing some specifications 8 4. Results 4.1. Introduction 9 4.2. Testing theoretical restrictions 10 4.3. Testing dynamic specifications 11 4.4. Testing specifications of the covariance matrix 12 5. Conclusion 13 Appendix 13 References 17