A Dynamic Spatiotemporal Analysis Model for Traffic Incident Influence Prediction on Urban Road Networks

Abstract

Traffic incidents have a broad negative impact on both traffic systems and the quality of social activities; thus, analyzing and predicting the influence of traffic incidents dynamically is necessary. However, the traditional geographic information system for transportation (GIS-T) mostly presents fundamental data and static analysis, and transportation models focus predominantly on some typical road structures. Therefore, it is important to integrate transportation models with the spatiotemporal analysis techniques of GIS to address the dynamic process of traffic incidents. This paper presents a dynamic spatiotemporal analysis model to predict the influence of traffic incidents with the assistance of a GIS database and road network data. The model leverages a physical traffic shockwave model, and different superposition situations of shockwaves are proposed for both straight roads and road networks. Two typical cases were selected to verify the proposed model and were tested with the car-following model and real-world monitoring data. The results showed that the proposed model could successfully predict traffic effects with over 60% accuracy in both cases, and required less computational resources than the car-following model. Compared to other methods, the proposed model required fewer dynamic parameters and could be implemented on a wider set of road hierarchies.

Examining Car Accident Prediction Techniques and Road Traffic Congestion: A Comparative Analysis of Road Safety and Prevention of World Challenges in Low-Income and High-Income Countries

“…Moreover, Liu et al [14] applied the shockwave trafc model, which can be successfully integrated with GIS spatiotemporal analysis, to predict the congestion situation for incidents and for diferent road hierarchies. Farhan Labib et al [44] conducted a study fgure to identify signifcant factors that have a clear efect on road accidents and provide benefcial suggestions regarding this issue.…”

“…Tese accidents not only result in fatalities and fnancial losses but also disrupt trafc fow, leading to congestion, and compromising trafc safety. Improving road conditions, implementing efective trafc management strategies, and enhancing driver education and training are efective measures to reduce the number of trafc accidents [14].…”

“…Te management of trafc safety assumes a crucial role in intelligent transportation systems (ITSs). Trafc safety management encompasses a broad research domain wherein it is essential to analyze and predict the infuence of trafc incidents [14].…”

Optimal Bus-Bridging Service under a Metro Station Disruption

“…But this model ignored the randomness of the passengers' choice behaviors and the influence of the controlling strategies 2 Journal of Advanced Transportation on passenger behaviors. Some other researchers studied the impacts of traffic incidents on road traffic, which could provide references for this study in metro system [8,9].…”

Predicting the duration and impact of the non-recurring road incidents on the transportation network

“…For example, Long et al [54] employed the cell transmission model (CTM) to simulate the traffic jam at the microscopic level. Liu et al [11] proposed a traffic shock wave model and simulated different superposition situations of shock waves for the road network. Raktim et al [55] also developed a simulation model to design a freeway service patrol program for incident management.…”