A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Abstract

The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households' income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust.We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.

Land use/cover spatiotemporal dynamics, driving forces and implications at the Beshillo catchment of the Blue Nile Basin, North Eastern Highlands of Ethiopia

“…LULC change has become the focus of geographical research and discourse in Ethiopia for the last few decades (see Zeleke and Hurni 2001;Garedew et al 2009;Kindu et al 2013;Temesgen et al 2013;Meshesha et al 2014;Desalegn et al 2014;Ariti et al 2015;Yesuf et al 2015;Demissie et al 2017;Etefa et al 2018), but all of these studies were undertaken far from the relatively little known, sensitive and fragile areas of Beshillo catchments. Hence, accurate and up-to-date spatio-temporal information on LULC dynamics, the driving forces and implications of these changes are urgently needed as an input parameter for planning site-specific sustainable land use and resource management practices in such overlooked place.…”

Identifying Categorical Land Use Transition and Land Degradation in Northwestern Drylands of Ethiopia

“…The loss in dryland vegetation of Africa has been significantly increased, resulting in land degradation [2,3]. The northwestern semiarid lands of Ethiopia are no different, as woodlands are cleared and exposed to severe landscape changes [4][5][6]. The woodlands of Ethiopia, despite their richness in biodiversity, are shrinking in size due to the pressure of anthropogenic activities [5,7].…”

Drivers of Households’ Land-Use Decisions: A Critical Review of Micro-Level Studies in Tropical Regions

“…There is a consensus in the literature that population pressure is an important driver of land-use change [51,77,90,91] and that it also triggers technological change in agriculture technologies [32]. Since population pressure can only be partially reflected at the household level, micro-level studies on land-use change often incorporate census data into their analysis (see for instance, [32,39,44,51,58,91,92].…”

“…Since population pressure can only be partially reflected at the household level, micro-level studies on land-use change often incorporate census data into their analysis (see for instance, [32,39,44,51,58,91,92]. More precisely, population growth-often accelerated by migration-can either result in extensive (if uncultivated lands are available) or intensive land use (if uncultivated lands are not available).…”