A dynamic programming approach for modeling low-carbon fuel technology adoption considering learning-by-doing effect

Chen, Yuche; Zhang, Yunteng; Fan, Yueyue; Hu, Kejia; Zhao, Jianyou

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.10.094

Cited by 30 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…These would benefit from more reliable forecasts as, besides cost reductions, other improvements can also be expected 50 . A few recently published TEAs on biofuels have already implemented learning curves in their assessments 130–132 …”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Techno‐economic learning in biorefinery research; a meta‐level perspective of three exemplary cases

Krassnitzer,

Wenger,

Stern

2023

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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The production of liquid fuels and chemicals from biomass is an essential part of establishing a bioeconomy. Numerous techno‐economic studies have been published on different pathways for processing biomass. To examine the progress made in this field, a meta‐analysis investigating three exemplary biobased products was conducted. Using recently published techno‐economic studies, the (average) unit production costs for biodiesel, cellulosic ethanol and kraft lignin were investigated. Findings in this study are based on an understanding of two phenomena: economies of scale and the learning effect. Economies of scale can be observed for each case, with kraft lignin extraction indicating the greatest cost advantages and the production of biodiesel the smallest. The investigation of potential learning effects revealed by the data yielded unexpected results: In two out of three cases, the calculated average unit production cost was observed to increase over time. These results contradict the expected influence of learning effects on calculated unit production costs as these did not decrease over time for a specific technology. A closer investigation of processing pathways and feedstocks shows that a diversification in research has occurred over the last three decades. Different driving forces of innovation related to the investigated products are also identified.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…50 A few recently published TEAs on biofuels have already implemented learning curves in their assessments. [130][131][132]…”

Section: Learning (Effects)?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Techno‐economic learning in biorefinery research; a meta‐level perspective of three exemplary cases

Krassnitzer,

Wenger,

Stern

2023

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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“…The logistics, economics, and other details are often complex, and projects looking at the practicalities of introducing new technologies and incentive programs are important to achieve implementation. For example, H 2 could be a very effective transportation fuel and there is the potential to produce H 2 from wastewater, MSW, livestock waste, and green waste (Chen et al, 2017; Parker et al, 2008). The published information on the GHG and criteria pollutant impacts from alternative, biomass‐based, transportation fuels, and from electric vehicles, show that these developments have had, and are likely to continue to have, benefits for air quality and the climate.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The good, the bad, and the future: Systematic review identifies best use of biomass to meet air quality and climate policies in California

Freer‐Smith,

Bailey‐Bale,

Donnison

et al. 2023

GCB Bioenergy

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California has large and diverse biomass resources and provides a pertinent example of how biomass use is changing and needs to change, in the face of climate mitigation policies. As in other areas of the world, California needs to optimize its use of biomass and waste to meet environmental and socioeconomic objectives. We used a systematic review to assess biomass use pathways in California and the associated impacts on climate and air quality. Biomass uses included the production of renewable fuels, electricity, biochar, compost, and other marketable products. For those biomass use pathways recently developed, information is available on the effects—usually beneficial—on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and there is some, but less, published information on the effects on criteria pollutants. Our review identifies 34 biomass use pathways with beneficial impacts on either GHG or pollutant emissions, or both—the “good.” These included combustion of forest biomass for power and conversion of livestock‐associated biomass to biogas by anaerobic digestion. The review identified 13 biomass use pathways with adverse impacts on GHG emissions, criteria pollutant emissions, or both—the “bad.” Wildfires are an example of one out of eight pathways which were found to be bad for both climate and air quality, while only two biomass use pathways reduced GHG emissions relative to an identified counterfactual but had adverse air quality impacts. Issues of high interest for the “future” included land management to reduce fire risk, future policies for the dairy industries, and full life‐cycle analysis of biomass production and use.

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“…They show an evaluated cost reduction in the range of 13%-35% as the cumulative production of biofuels doubles. Chen et al, (2017), like many other studies that incorporate learning effect in the cost function, follows by presenting a single stage dynamic programming framework for investigating timedependent and adaptive decision-making processes to develop advanced fuel technologies.…”

Section: Learning By Doing (Lbd)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the economics of processed natural resources - the case of seaweed

Zilberman

Palatnik

Golberg

2017

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The bioeconomy utilizes living organisms and processes them to produce of food, fuel, fine chemicals, and other substances. Macroalgae are promising feedstocks for chemical products while sequestering carbon. There is a need for methodologies for economic and policy analysis of novel bioeconomy technologies, taking into account environmental side effects and physical and economic uncertainties.The aims of the feasibility study BARD Project No. US-4986-17 F were twofold: First, to develop a methodology to assess the economic feasibility of biological feedstock cultivation and processing into co-products. The methodology addressed various parameters, associated with the new technology, and assessed the performance of the integrated supply chain that includes feedstock and processing to produce sugars and proteins. Second, to apply this system to assess the profitability of producing commodity biochemicals from macroalgae under various assumptions about growth rates of the feedstock, prices and costs, conversion factors in the biorefinery and technological learning.Following the original objectives of this study, we developed a novel methodology to assess the performance of the integrated two-stage supply chainfeedstock farming and processing into multiple outputs. The modeling framework clarifies that learning in multi-stage supply chain creates a positive externality of co-outputs. Moreover, if learning rate is faster than cost increase, then output grows faster than prices. Next, we demonstrated the application of this non-linear dynamic model on macroalgae (seaweed) farming and processing in the biorefinery into crude proteins and polysaccharide (carrageenan). Our computational experiments identified the set of conditions in terms of costs, prices of outputs, shares of co-outputs in the biorefinery, as well as technological efficiency and R&D efforts that make production of biochemicals from macroalage worthwhile. The results indicate that for average prices of proteins and carrageenan, and for average costs of investment in cultivation farm and the biorefinery, macro algae utilization is cost-efficient. However, profitability of this supply chain is fragile due to high volatility of outputs' prices, as well as wide range of feedstock growth rate and chemical composition. We found that the main constrain for commercialization, is the first stage of the supply chain, namely macroalgae marine cultivation.The follow up study is planned to investigate the hypothesis that macroalgae derived commodity biochemical could provide a novel, sustainable and economic supply chain for the low-carbon food industry. The big scale macroalgae cultivation involves direct and external effects on marine environment, carbon absorption, potable water, land use and employment. Further analysis on macroalgae external costs and benefits, as well as social welfare analysis, is required for an accurate policy intervention. Accordingly, we will identify policy parameters, including pricing of greenhouse gas sequestration and other externali...

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A dynamic programming approach for modeling low-carbon fuel technology adoption considering learning-by-doing effect

Cited by 30 publications

References 34 publications

Techno‐economic learning in biorefinery research; a meta‐level perspective of three exemplary cases

Techno‐economic learning in biorefinery research; a meta‐level perspective of three exemplary cases

The good, the bad, and the future: Systematic review identifies best use of biomass to meet air quality and climate policies in California

Assessing the economics of processed natural resources - the case of seaweed

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