A dynamic model of Indonesian National Health Insurance participation types

Abstract

In this paper we will discuss the dynamic model of Indonesian National Health Insurance (JKN) participation number. In this model, we divide JKN participation types into three categories: PBPU, PBI and PPU. The dynamic model is built using ordinary differential equation (ODE) system from a multiple states model that describes the transition of JKN participation types from time to time. The parameters of the model are estimated from data that is refined by an exponential smoothing time series method. As a result, the estimated number of JKN participation for each type until 2045 is obtained.