A dynamic model of contraceptive choice of Spanish couples

Abstract

SUMMARYWe propose a simple dynamic stochastic model of sterilization and contraceptive use and we estimate its structural parameters using a sample of married couples from the 1995 Spanish Family and Fertility Survey. The estimated structural model improves on previous studies in terms of its ability to rationalize observed behaviour. Allowing for simple forms of permanent unobserved heterogeneity across couples in their ability to conceive has important implications for estimates of utility and cost parameters. Estimates of child valuation parameters imply that most Spanish couples would have two children, but significant deviations from this goal are brought about by imperfect and costly fertility control. We perform simulations to quantify the impact on fertility of the availability of sterilization and other technologies which improve fertility control.

Dynamic binary outcome models with maximal heterogeneity

“…The condition in this proposition is weaker than the condition derived in Browning and Carro (2013), since we have shown that smaller T is required in general. 10 Furthermore, the number of periods we need to identify the system in general here increases at a square root rate with the number of points of support of the distribution we seek to identify, as opposed to increasing our need of periods linearly (that is, at the same rate) as in Browning and Carro (2013). Numbers in the last row of Table 3.1 illustrate how much stronger are the requirements of the condition in Browning and Carro (2013).…”

“…Thus the only global identi…cation su¢cient conditions in this context are those given in Browning and Carro (2013) that, as explained, require many more periods than those given above. 10 The result in Browning and Carro (2013) states that T 2S 1 is su¢cient for identi…cation of the joint distribution of fP; G; Hg with S points of support. 11 On the other hand, the condition in Browning and Carro (2013) yields global identi…cation.…”

“…This case corresponds with the assumptions made about permanent unobserved heterogeneity in papers such as Keane and Wolpin (1997) and Carro and Mira (2006). With a discrete x i0 variable that can take N x values, if we do not place any parametric restriction on this probability there are N x (S 1) parameters si , plus the 3N x S parameters (P xs ; G xs ; H xs ).…”

Habit Persistence and Teen Sex: Could Increased Access to Contraception Have Unintended Consequences for Teen Pregnancies?

“…Should an individual choose to engage in sex, she becomes pregnant with a probability that depends upon the choice of contraception. As in Hotz and Miller (1993) and Carro and Mira (2006), contraception will reduce, but not eliminate, pregnancy risk. We use the model estimates to forecast the short-run and long-run effects of increased access to contraception on the rates of teen sex and pregnancy.…”

The Consequences of Abortion and Contraception Policies on Young Women's Reproductive Choices, Schooling and Labor Supply

“…7 Carro and Mira (2006) Arcidiacono et al (2012), where sexual initiation is a crucial aspect of treating sexual activity as a choice, more than 75% of women in my sample are sexually active at the beginning of the modeling period. Moreover, it is not clear that a proper model of sexual activity choice (i.e., one with predictive power) could be developed in the context of this paper with the available data.…”