A double-threshold temperature sum model for predicting the flowering duration and relative intensity of Betula pendula and B. pubescens

Linkosalo, Tapio; Ranta, Hanna; Oksanen, Annukka; Siljamo, Pilvi; Luomajoki, Alpo; Kukkonen, Jaakko; Sofiev, M.

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.08.007

Cited by 51 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…This difference is however not expected to have a substantial impact on the observed differences between the two sites. The most important parameters for the development of the pollen season from spring trees, as well as the daily release, are daily mean, daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures [42], and the heat accumulation (degree days) during or before the season [18,21,44]. This suggests that a continental climate will tend to have shorter and more intense pollen seasons during spring compared to the maritime climate, which is supported by these data sets for both Alnus and Betula.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

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Footprint areas of pollen from alder (Alnus) and birch (Betula) in the UK (Worcester) and Poland (Wrocław) during 2005–2014

et al. 2015

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In this study we analyzed daily pollen concentrations of Alnus spp. and Betula spp. from Worcester, UK and Wrocław, Poland. We analyzed seasonality, annual pollen index and footprint areas for the observed pollen concentrations by using the trajectory model hybrid single particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory (HYSPLIT). We examined 10 years of data during the period 2005-2014 and found substantial differences in the seasonality, pollen indices and footprint areas. For both genera, concentrations in Wrocław are in general much higher, the seasons are shorter and therefore more intense than in Worcester. The reasons appear to be related to the differences in overall climate between the two sites and more abundant sources in Poland than in England. The footprint areas suggest that the source of the pollen grains are mainly local trees but appear to be augmented by remote sources, in particular for Betula spp. but only to a small degree for Alnus spp. For Betula spp., both sites appear to get contributions from areas in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium, while known Betula spp. rich regions in Russia, Belarus and Scandinavia had a very limited impact on the pollen concentrations in Worcester and Wrocław. Substantial and systematic variations in pollen indices are seen for Betula spp. in Wrocław with high values every second year while a similar pattern is not observed for Worcester. This pattern was not reproduced for Alnus spp.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

“…Alnus flowers earlier than Betula [18] and is very sensitive to climate change [19]. High amounts of Alnus pollen will extend the hay fever season for sensitive individuals due to the cross reactivity with Betula.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Footprint areas of pollen from alder (Alnus) and birch (Betula) in the UK (Worcester) and Poland (Wrocław) during 2005–2014

et al. 2015

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“…The parameterization scheme proposed by Helbig et al (2004) based on friction velocity, u * , has been widely used in other regional modeling studies Vogel et al, 2008;Efstathiou et al, 2010;Zink et al, 2012). A recent paper by Sofiev et al (2013) reported a new birch pollen emission scheme based on a temperature-dependent 1464 R. Zhang et al: Regional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework parameterization (Linkosalo et al, 2010) and used the convective velocity scale (w * ) together with the 10 m wind speed to represent the influence of both mean wind and convection on pollen emission. The authors suggested that this was a more realistic approach for free convection and low mean wind conditions.…”

Section: Pollen Emission Flux Parameterizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a regional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework for investigating the impact of climate change on allergic airway disease

et al. 2014

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Abstract. Exposure to bioaerosol allergens such as pollen can cause exacerbations of allergenic airway disease (AAD) in sensitive populations, and thus cause serious public health problems. Assessing these health impacts by linking the airborne pollen levels, concentrations of respirable allergenic material, and human allergenic response under current and future climate conditions is a key step toward developing preventive and adaptive actions. To that end, a regional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework was developed that treats allergenic pollens as non-reactive tracers within the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF/CMAQ) modeling system. The Simulator of the Timing and Magnitude of Pollen Season (STaMPS) model was used to generate a daily pollen pool that can then be emitted into the atmosphere by wind. The STaMPS is driven by species-specific meteorological (temperature and/or precipitation) threshold conditions and is designed to be flexible with respect to its representation of vegetation species and plant functional types (PFTs). The hourly pollen emission flux was parameterized by considering the pollen pool, friction velocity, and wind threshold values. The dry deposition velocity of each species of pollen was estimated based on pollen grain size and density. An evaluation of the pollen modeling framework was conducted for southern California (USA) for the period from March to June 2010. This period coincided with observations by the University of Southern California's Children's Health Study (CHS), which included O 3 , PM 2.5 , and pollen count, as well as measurements of exhaled nitric oxide in study participants. Two nesting domains with horizontal resolutions of 12 and 4 km were constructed, and six representative allergenic pollen genera were included: birch tree, walnut tree, mulberry tree, olive tree, oak tree, and brome grasses. Under the current parameterization scheme, the modeling framework tends to underestimate walnut and peak oak pollen concentrations, and tends to overestimate grass pollen concentrations. The model shows reasonable agreement with observed birch, olive, and mulberry tree pollen concentrations. Sensitivity studies suggest that the estimation of the pollen pool is a major source of uncertainty for simulated pollen concentrations. Achieving agreement between emission modeling and observed pattern of pollen releases is the key for successful pollen concentration simulations.

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“…All models of this study are equipped with the same birch pollen source term The flowering description follows the concept of thermal time phenological models and, in particular, the doublethreshold air temperature sum approach of Linkosalo et al (2010) modified by , which determines the flowering propagation during the whole spring season. Within that approach, the heat accumulation starts on a day in spring (1 March in the current setup) and continues throughout the season.…”

Section: Birch Pollen Source Termmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This phenomenon was noticed in the middle of the twentieth century (Erdtman, 1937(Erdtman, , 1935(Erdtman, , 1931Gregory, 1961). Later, it was recognised that the long-range transported pollen can have a substantial health impact (Viander and Koivikko, 1978) and facilitate a large-scale redistribution of genetic material (Lindgren et al, 1995). Long-range transport of pollen is practically unpredictable with local observations or statistical models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe

et al. 2015

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Abstract. This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The sevenmodel European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more, which is a known feature of the source term used in the study. Absolute pollen concentrations during the seaPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. M. Sofiev et al.: MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersionson were somewhat underestimated in the southern part of the birch habitat. In the northern part of Europe, a recordlow pollen season was strongly overestimated by all models. The median of the multi-model ensemble demonstrated robust performance, successfully eliminating the impact of outliers, which was particularly useful since for most models this was the first experience of pollen forecasting.

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A double-threshold temperature sum model for predicting the flowering duration and relative intensity of Betula pendula and B. pubescens

Cited by 51 publications

References 21 publications

Footprint areas of pollen from alder (Alnus) and birch (Betula) in the UK (Worcester) and Poland (Wrocław) during 2005–2014

Footprint areas of pollen from alder (Alnus) and birch (Betula) in the UK (Worcester) and Poland (Wrocław) during 2005–2014

Development of a regional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework for investigating the impact of climate change on allergic airway disease

MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe

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