A discrete‐time hazard analysis of the exit of burley tobacco growers in Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia

Abstract

This article examines the exit and survival dynamics of burley tobacco growers in Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia using a discrete-time hazard logit model. The study also predicts the effects of selected farm and family characteristics on exit hazards, assesses the proportionality of their effects over time and their relative importance in explaining the variation in exit hazards among burley tobacco growers. Results provide the longitudinal progression of the probability of exiting the tobacco industry since the end of the federal tobacco program in 2004, and identify off-farm participation, percentage of farm receipts from tobacco, tobacco price, educational level, and farm size as the most important determinants of the decision to exit the tobacco industry. Further, the effects of off-farm participation and farm size on the exit hazards of burley tobacco farms are proportional over time while the effects of the percentage of farm receipts from tobacco and tobacco price are time variant. Copyright (c) 2010 International Association of Agricultural Economists.

The impact of drought and water scarcity on irrigator farm exit intentions in the Murray–Darling Basin

“…In terms of other farm physical characteristics, a negative relationship has been found between farm size and exit (Kimhi and Bollman 1999;Pietola et al 2003;Rae and Zhang 2009;Tiller et al 2010) while Mőllers and Fritzsch (2010) found a positive relationship. Again, Mőllers and Fritzsch (2010) found a positive relationship between farm income and exit, while Pushkarskaya and Vedenov (2009) found it to be negative.…”

“…There have been more studies conducted on farm exit intentions than actual farm exit (most likely because of the difficulties in collecting data to study actual farm exit). For example, in our review some of the studies on actual farm exit include: Kimhi and Bollman (1999); Kimhi (2000), Goetz and Debertin (2001), Vanclay (2003), Barr (2004Barr ( , 2009Barr ( , 2014 and Väre (2006); while the literature on farm exit intention includes: Pietola et al (2003), Bragg and Dalton (2004), Pushkarskaya and Vedenov (2009), Rae and Zhang (2009), Dong et al (2010), Mőllers and Fritzsch (2010), Tiller et al (2010) and Zuo et al (2015). There are no consistent differences of variable influence in the actual and intention farm exit literature, hence we summarise their findings as a whole below.…”

“…The actual evidence from the farm exit (intention) literature supports the hypothesis that there is no clear relationship between farmer age and exit. For example, some studies find there is a non-linear relationship between farm exit and farmer age, with younger and older farmers more likely to exit (Kimhi and Bollman 1999;Bragg and Dalton 2004;Tiller et al 2010). By contrast, Zuo et al (2015), Pietola et al (2003) and Väre (2006) found exit decreased with farmer age.…”

Sustainability of EU Food Safety Certification: A Survival Analysis of Firm Decisions

“…Survival (or duration) models have been widely used in epidemiology and medical research to explain occurrence of and survival from a disease (for example, Kurian, Sigal, and Plevritis 2009;Song and Lawson 2009;Spitale et al 2009;Madan et al 2008). Application to economic problems is less frequent but targeted to issues where duration is the focus-that is, exit or survival of firms (Olmos 2010;Tiller, Feleke, and Starnes 2009;Dimara et al 2008;Soderbom, Teal, and Harding 2006); rate of technology adoption (Abdulai and Huffman 2005); rate of contract termination (Olmos 2010); length of visitor stay (Barros and Machado 2010; Barros, Butler, and Correia 2010;Gokovali, Bahar, and Kozak 2007); timing of loan default (Roszbach 2004); infrastructure failure (Debon, Carrion, and Solano 2010); and employee retention (Mattox II and Jinkerson 2005).…”

Dynamics of EU food safety certification: a survival analysis of firm decisions

“…It has been widely used in epidemiology and medical research to explain occurrence of and survival from a disease (for example, Kurian et al 2009;Song and Lawson 2009;Spitale et al 2009;Madan et al 2008). Application to economic problems is less frequent but targeted to issues where length of time or time periods is the focus-that is, exit or survival of firms (Olmos 2010;Tiller et al 2009;Dimara et al 2008;Soderbom et al 2006); rate of technology adoption (Abdulai and Huffman 2005); rate of contract termination (Olmos 2010); length of visitor stay (Barros and Machado 2010); timing of loan default (Roszbach 2004); infrastructure failure (Debon et al 2010); and employee retention (Mattox II and Jinkerson 2005).…”