A discrete choice model based on random utilities for exit choice in emergency evacuations

Lovreglio, Ruggiero; Borri, Dino; dell’Olio, Luigi; Ibeas, Ángel

doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2013.10.004

Cited by 121 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Moreover, by performing experiments for corridors, Helbing, Buzna, Johansson, and Werner (2005) analyze patterns of pedestrian flow and suggest several designs for corridors. Lovreglio and colleagues analyze herding behavior in exit choice (Lovreglio, Borri, Dell'Olio, & Ibeas, 2014;Lovreglio, Fonzone, Dell'Olio, & Borri, 2016). Kiyono and Mori (2004) build an evacuation simulation based on the Distinct Element Method, assuming virtual springs that represent physical and socio-psychological forces.…”

Section: Evacuation Process Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cooperative survival principles for underground flooding: Vitae System based multi-agent simulation

Higo

Okada

Hipel

et al. 2017

Expert Systems with Applications

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Section: Evacuation Process Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cooperative survival principles for underground flooding: Vitae System based multi-agent simulation

Higo

Okada

Hipel

et al. 2017

Expert Systems with Applications

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“…informative and normative) may be an important environmental factor during evacuations as a way to deal with the perceived uncertainty associated with these situations (Kinateder, 2012;Lovreglio et al, 2014a;Nilsson, 2009). Thus, during evacuations other people may be seen as both a source to understand what is happening and an example of how to behave (Informative Social Influence).…”

Section: Social Interactions and Herding Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This work focuses on herding behaviour in exit choice, which is one of the most important decisions during evacuations (Lovreglio et al, 2014a). Herding behaviour occurs whenever people behave as a group by putting aside their ability to act as individuals (Saloma and Perez, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An approach based on Random Utility Models is used to model herding behavior in exit choice. This approach is applied to the data collected by Lovreglio et al (2014a) according to methodology that is based on "a priori" face-to-face interviews.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A summary on the approaches used until now to model herding behaviour is presented and a case study based on data collected by Lovreglio et al (2014a) is described. The model estimated is described and a behavioural analysis is presented.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The Role of Herding Behaviour in Exit Choice During Evacuation

Lovreglio

Fonzone

dell’Olio

et al. 2014

Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences

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Modelling of human behaviour during emergencies is an important issue to be investigated to improve the safety of transportation infrastructures. This behaviour can be influenced by both the environment (i.e. social influences) and characteristics of the users of infrastructures. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the social influences that push a user to manifest a herding behaviour during evacuations. A behavioural model based on discrete choice models is proposed by using data collected through an on-line survey. This approach is able to highlight the heterogenic tastes of decision makers that may influence this choice in exit behaviour. The results show that decision makers are influenced by both people close to the exit and their socio-economic characteristic.

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Pedestrian crowd tactical‐level decision making during emergency evacuations

Haghani

Sarvi

2016

J of Advced Transportation

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This paper investigates pedestrian crowd tactical-level decision making during emergency evacuations. Of particular interest is crowd exit-choice behaviour. Two sources of stated choice data are collected and combined. One data set is derived from an experiment linked to a real-life exit choice experience of participants (in a non-evacuation setting). We examine aspects that have often been taken for granted in the literature in connection with egress behaviour of crowds during emergencies. We quantify evacuees' trade-off between "distance", "density", "exit visibility" and "directional density" as well as the interactive effect between exit visibility and tendency to follow others. A comprehensive random-utility analysis is conducted ranging from traditionally practiced models to the state-of-the-practice methods such as random-coefficient nested logit. Our findings suggest that (i) unless evacuees face certain levels of uncertainty in the escape environment; flows of crowd are unlikely to be followed. Otherwise, most evacuees perceive other individuals as potential sources of congestion and extra delay (generalisation to situations where crowd is completely unfamiliar with the egress geometry, however, may require careful scrutiny). (ii) Evacuees mostly prefer visible exits over the exits whose congestion level is unknown to them (i.e. the tendency to minimise ambiguity). (iii) The presence of attribute uncertainty (e.g. exit visibility) significantly changes the impact of observing decisions of others on each individual choice maker. We also found out that (iv) spatial distribution of exits has a significant influence on evacuees' decisions (presenting itself in the form of violating the IIA assumption). (v) The marginal weights that different individuals place upon attributes of exits are significantly heterogeneous. (vi) There is meaningful correlation between certain utility weights of individual evacuees. These behavioural findings can provide significant behavioural insight essential for safe evacuation planning and accurate forecast of evacuees' behaviour.All other model estimation results were obtained from NLOGIT 5.

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A discrete choice model based on random utilities for exit choice in emergency evacuations

Cited by 121 publications

References 33 publications

Cooperative survival principles for underground flooding: Vitae System based multi-agent simulation

Cooperative survival principles for underground flooding: Vitae System based multi-agent simulation

The Role of Herding Behaviour in Exit Choice During Evacuation

Pedestrian crowd tactical‐level decision making during emergency evacuations

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