A disaster severity assessment decision support tool for reducing the risk of failure in response operations

Hasani, Sara; El‐Haddadeh, Ramzi; Aktaş, Emel

doi:10.2495/risk140311

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 13 publications

(12 reference statements)

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“…The experts gave the highest value for WASH (9.7%) shelter (7%), health (5%), and nutrition (35%) whilst non-experts gave the highest value for WASH (8.6%) health (5%) nutrition (36%) and shelter (2%). These preferences in combination with the resources available to the suppliers can be used to calculate the utility of each supplier using PREDIS [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 ] as articulated in Appendix B , Figure A1 . This shows that in order to optimise the decision, the following resources need to be selected.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the decision about resource allocation and life-saving activities needs to be taken before the MIRA report [ 1 ]. In the absence of the real time data, a model called PREdictive model for DISaster response supplier selection (PREDIS) was introduced by authors previously [ 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 ]. This paper aims to validate this model using an experimental technique called the simulation game.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Serious Games as a Validation Tool for PREDIS: A Decision Support System for Disaster Management

Rye

Aktaş

2022

IJERPH

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In this paper, we validate PREDIS, a decision support system for disaster management using serious games to collect experts’ judgments on its performance. PREDIS is a model for DISaster response supplier selection (PREDIS). It has a PREDictive component (PRED) for predicting the disaster human impact and an estimation component to Estimate the DISaster (EDIS) needs to optimise supplier-based resource allocation. A quasi-experiment design embedded in a participatory simulation game is conducted to compare the opinions of equal samples of 22 experts and non-experts. The following questions are put forward. First, “Does PREDIS model assists the decision makers to make the same decisions faster?” Second, “Does the PREDIS model assist the non-experts as simulated decision makers to decide like an expert?” Using AHP weights of decision makers’ preferences as well as Borda counts, the decisions are compared. The result shows that PREDIS helps to reduce the decision-making time by experts and non-experts to 6 h after the disaster strike, instead of the usual 72 h. It also assists 71% of the non-experts to make decisions similar to those made by experts. In summary, the PREDIS model has two major capabilities. It enables the experts and non-experts to predict the disaster results immediately using widely available data. It also enables the non-experts to decide almost the same as the experts; either in predicting the human impact of a disaster and estimating the needs or in selecting suitable suppliers.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Serious Games as a Validation Tool for PREDIS: A Decision Support System for Disaster Management

Rye

Aktaş

2022

IJERPH

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“…On the other hand, Rolland et al (2010) provides a decision support system for resource scheduling in the response and recovery phases and Javaid et al ( 2013) develops a reputation management system for the efficient selection of partners. Finally, the authors of this study proposed in an earlier paper a decision support system for diagnosing the severity of the disaster using the limited data available in the early hours (Hasani et al 2014).…”

Section: Problem Definitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These issues signal a necessity to deal with the proliferation problem with a wider approach than existing guidelines such as resource scheduling techniques (Rolland et al 2010), reputation management systems for efficient selection of partners (Javaid et al 2013), and diagnosis of the severity of the disaster (Hasani et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Partner Proliferation Problem in Disaster Response Networks

Hasani¹,

El‐Haddadeh²,

Aktaş³

2015

International Series in Operations Research &Amp; Management Science

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The extraordinary conditions of a major disaster require mobilization of all available resources. This necessity, together with the stretch in the response budget in the public sector and the difficulty of raising funds in the private sector, draws various humanitarian actors with widely diverse capabilities into the affected area. This phenomenon is called the proliferation of actors, or the partner proliferation problem. This problem can have serious counterproductive effects on disaster operations, such as unmanaged independent efforts that lead to a duplication and confusion of effort. The disaster response phase generally lacks the contributions of a long-term outlook and pre-planning, which are adopted in existing long-term structures such as supply chains. The aim of this paper is to provide a structured review of the partner proliferation problem in the response phase and to suggest alternative courses of action for restructuring the disaster response network. Drawing on the concept of Virtual Organizations, the paper concludes that short-term collaboration is a suitable structure for the response phase. Short-term collaboration in the response phase is complementary to long-term collaborations such as supply chains in the recovery, mitigation, and preparedness phases of the disaster cycle. To that end, a conceptual framework is provided for re-structuring the disaster response network to align with the other phases of disaster management. Finally, further research is suggested to develop a decision making tool for partner configuration to meet the specific requirements of a disaster response network.

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A Review of the Disaster Risk Assessment Perspectives

Munasinghe,

Fernando,

Keraminiyage

et al. 2023

Progress in Landslide Research and Technology

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Researchers have explored different risk assessment approaches from the perspectives of different disciplines to capture urban risks, resulting in many risk assessment frameworks. In these frameworks, the risk environment is analysed using different quantitative and qualitative assessment methods, such as fuzzy set, probability theory, and evidence theory. While each approach has contributed to risk assessment, they suffer from a lack of consensus in defining and measuring the impact of risk in an urban environment.Therefore, the study aims to conduct a literature survey to consolidate a common set of risk assessment perspectives and approaches for measuring these risks.A structured review was carried out to achieve the aim of this research. The research question used for conducting the literature review was “What approaches are being used to define and measure the impact of hazard risks in an urban environment?”. The PICO (Population, Intervention, Compression Intervention, and Outcome) method was used to generate the search string for the literature review by considering the keywords in the research question. Initially, 206 research papers were selected through a search strategy, and by applying a screening method, 119 research articles were selected for the detailed review. The Nvivo software was supported for the review purpose; then, a mind map was developed, integrating all the risk assessment perspectives.Risk assessments were summarised by considering the various researchers’ perspectives. Thirty-four risk perspectives were identified through the literature, and a mind map was developed to understand the connectivity. This mind map was converted into a network diagram, and future requirements of risk perspectives were identified based on the risk assessment network diagram. According to the analysis, risk communication, risk treatment, critical curve, judgment curve, and risk matrix could be identified as future research areas. The risk reduction measuring strategies were identified by considering the feedback loop of the network diagram. Thus, 14 risk reduction strategies could be identified through the analysis.The risk assessment frameworks focused on holistic approaches, but most research studies did not adequately follow the risk perspectives. Therefore, research gaps were identified in the risk assessment process, and the areas were highlighted as state-of-the-art to conduct future research studies. The feedback loops of the network diagram emphasised the risk reduction strategies, which could be further researched through application to a case study.

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A disaster severity assessment decision support tool for reducing the risk of failure in response operations

Cited by 6 publications

References 13 publications

Serious Games as a Validation Tool for PREDIS: A Decision Support System for Disaster Management

Serious Games as a Validation Tool for PREDIS: A Decision Support System for Disaster Management

The Partner Proliferation Problem in Disaster Response Networks

A Review of the Disaster Risk Assessment Perspectives

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