A deterministic framework for selecting a flood forecasting and warning system at watershed scale

Abstract

Feasibility and efficiency of flood forecasting and warning systems (FFWS) are among the most important aims of the watershed flood management. In this paper, a framework was developed to select an FFWS with respect to the costs and benefits of developing and using them and depending on the location and the time of concentration of target points. Target points were determined according to the exposure to flood risk of recreational and population centres in the watershed. A comparison of the economic costs or damages, the injuries or loss of lives for the cases with or without an FFWS had been carried out. The costs of FFWS had been estimated by means of an analysis of the components and equipments required by the hydrological features of the watershed. The economic damages had been estimated based on survey information of assets in the floodplain, lead time for target points and the injuries or losses of lives. These had been estimated according to the intensity of flood hazard, vulnerability, behaviour of population and its location relative to the hazard exposure.

Evaluation of flood prediction capability of the distributed Grid‐Xinanjiang model driven by weather research and forecasting precipitation

“…The temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation have a significant influence on the peak, timing, and shape of flood hydrograph and are thus one of the most important inputs for any flood‐forecasting model (Singh & Woolhiser, ). It has been widely recognised that the lead time of flood forecasting can be increased by using the precipitation forecasting products from numerical weather prediction models (Chao et al, ; Golian, Yazdi, Martina, & Sheshangosht, ; Tang, Xie, Lackmann, & Liu, ; Todini, ; Yucel, Onen, Yilmaz, & Gochis, ; Zhang et al, ) or weather radar nowcasting products (Silvestro, Rebora, Cummings, & Ferraris, ). Among the precipitation forecasting techniques, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, which is a next‐generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction system designed for both atmospheric research and practical forecasting applications, has been demonstrated to be a useful and efficient tool for generating quantitative precipitation forecasts.…”

Risk-Averse Economic Optimization in the Adaptation of River Dikes to Climate Change

“…Since Van Dantzig (1956) applied the method of economic optimization in the decision problem for flood prevention, risk-based design has become a useful tool in the design of flood defences in the Netherlands. The economic optimization and loss of life can also be used as criteria for selecting a flood forecasting and warning system (Golian et al 2014). The environmental condition is usually assumed as unchanged when the economic optimization method is used.…”