A Deterioration Forecasting Model With Multi-Staged Weibull Hazard Functions

Aoki, Kazuya; Yamamoto, Kōji; Tsuda, Yoshitane; Kobayashi, Kiyoshi

doi:10.2208/jscej.2005.798_125

Cited by 17 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Aoki et al have already developed a deterioration forecasting model which the deterioration process depends on the time of use. Please refer to the paper about the basic concept and methodology of estimation of the multi-stage Weibull deterioration hazard model 14) . Here, the model which derives the optimal repair policy is briefly explained using the estimation result of the multi-stage Weibull deterioration hazard model.…”

Section: ) Deterioration Forecasting Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A correspondence relation of the condition states as used in the application case in this study are set up as seen in Table-1. The estimated results of the multi-weibull deterioration hazard model are shown in Table2 14) . In this demonstration test, E(í i ) is used as a controlled average to the parameter of the weibull deterioration hazard model.…”

Section: Empirical Study (1) Summary Of Empirical Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Asset Management Systems for the Facilities on the Highways

YAMAMOTO¹,

Aoki²,

Kobayashi

2007

journal of Civil Engineering Information Processing System

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Section: ) Deterioration Forecasting Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Empirical Study (1) Summary Of Empirical Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Asset Management Systems for the Facilities on the Highways

YAMAMOTO¹,

Aoki²,

Kobayashi

2007

journal of Civil Engineering Information Processing System

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Asset Management Systems for the Facilities on the Highways

Yamamoto¹,

Aoki²,

Kobayashi

2006

journal of Civil Engineering Information Processing System

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Abstract:In this paper, an asset management system (Fasys-AM) is presented to optimize maintenance/repair activities for the facilities on the highways. The Fasys-AM is designed to find out the optimal inspection/repair/replacement policies to minimize the life-cycle cost and fail risks based upon the database of the inventories and inspection history. The system involves, as its core module, a simulation model to investigate the long-medium term budget plans and the service levels of the facilities given the budgetary constraints. The deterioration processes of the facility systems are modeled by the aggregated time-dependent Markov process model. The paper illustrates a case study carried out for the lighting systems on the Tohoku expressway to investigate the validity of the Fasys-AM applications.キーワード：アセットマネジメント，ライフサイクル費用，最適点検・補修・更新政策 Keywords ： asset management, life cycle cost, optimal inspection/repair/replacement policy １：正会員中日本高速道路株式会社横浜支社保全・サービス事業部施設整備チーム (〒222-8503 横浜市港北区新横浜 3-9-18，Tel : 045-475-9239) ２：正会員博（工）株式会社パスコ GIS 総合研究所応用技術開発課

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The Optimal Implementation Policy for Inspecting Pavement With Deterioration Uncertainty

Kobayashi

Eguchi²,

Oi³

et al. 2013

Journal of JSCE

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This study proposes a methodology to find the optimal inspection policy for road pavement with uncertain deterioration processes. Since the deterioration progresses are characterized by a lot of uncertainty, the pavement conditions cannot be deterministically evaluated unless the inspection or repair activities are carried out. The road administrators have to decide whether repair should be implemented based upon the results of inspection. In this paper, the value of the inspection is evaluated by using the real option theory, and the optimal inspection and repair model is formulated to investigate the optimal inspection frequencies and repair policy, which may minimize the expected life cycle costs. Finally, the validity of the methodology presented in the paper is investigated by a case study dealing with the expressway in the real world.

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A Deterioration Forecasting Model With Multi-Staged Weibull Hazard Functions

Cited by 17 publications

References 14 publications

Asset Management Systems for the Facilities on the Highways

Asset Management Systems for the Facilities on the Highways

Asset Management Systems for the Facilities on the Highways

The Optimal Implementation Policy for Inspecting Pavement With Deterioration Uncertainty

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