A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants

Salguero‐Gómez, Roberto; Siewert, Wolfgang; Casper, Brenda B.; Tielbӧrger, Katja

doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0074

Cited by 112 publications

(110 citation statements)

References 106 publications

(202 reference statements)

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“…Therefore, the observed increase in biomass (and associated fecundity) could directly translate into increased population growth. Such an increase in population size under realistic climate change scenarios has been found in a parallel study that modelled the long-term population dynamics of a dominant annual species based on long-term demographic information from our study sites (Salguero-Gómez et al 2012). The negative response to drought found in the dry treatment of the semi-arid site can be interpreted as a response to water limitation.…”

Section: Flowering Timesupporting

confidence: 79%

Phenotypic response of plants to simulated climate change in a long-term rain-manipulation experiment: a multi-species study

Hänel

Tielbӧrger

2015

Oecologia

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Many species will need to adapt to the observed climate change in order to persist. However, research about adaptation or phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change is rare. In particular, field studies are lacking that impose artificial selection for a sufficiently long time to elicit changes in phenotypic and genotypic structure of populations. Here, we present findings for an 8-year field experiment with 16 annual plant species that tested potentially adaptive phenotypic responses to precipitation change. In both a Mediterranean and a semi-arid site, annual precipitation was manipulated (±30%) and phenotypic response was recorded. We measured flowering time as a key trait related to climatic conditions and biomass and survival as fitness correlates. Differences in traits among treatments were compared to trait shifts between sites, according to space-for-time approaches. In the drier site, phenology was accelerated, but within that site, experimental drought delayed phenology, probably as a plastic response to delayed ontogenetic development. Biomass was smaller in the dry treatments of that site, but it was also reduced in irrigated plots in both sites, indicating more intense competition. The shifts from limitation by drought to limitation by competition corresponded to patterns along the gradient. This also implies a larger negative impact of climate change in the drier site. Our results suggest that experimental selection in the field caused directional responses in most species, but these were not necessarily adaptive. Furthermore, competitive release imposed by climate change may revert direct negative effects of rainfall change in determining plant performance.

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Section: Flowering Timesupporting

confidence: 79%

Phenotypic response of plants to simulated climate change in a long-term rain-manipulation experiment: a multi-species study

Hänel

Tielbӧrger

2015

Oecologia

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“…Two short-lived desert species, Cryptantha flava and Carrichtera annua, were found to be able to buffer stochastic changes under climate change due to elasticity in seed bank emergence (Salguero-G omez et al, 2012), and this is consistent with model predictions (Koons et al, 2009). Long-lived species may have lower annual reproductive rates but their capacity to withstand incremental changes to their environment may be buffered by wider demographic reaction norms, i.e.…”

Section: Species Lifespan and Reproductive Ratessupporting

confidence: 69%

Population-level genetic variation and climate change in a biodiversity hotspot

Schierenbeck

2017

Ann Bot

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Introduction Estimated future climate scenarios can be used to predict where hotspots of endemism may occur over the next century, but life history, ecological and genetic traits will be important in informing the varying responses within myriad taxa. Essential to predicting the consequences of climate change to individual species will be an understanding of the factors that drive genetic structure within and among populations. Here, I review the factors that influence the genetic structure of plant species in California, but are applicable elsewhere; existing levels of genetic variation, life history and ecological characteristics will affect the ability of an individual taxon to persist in the presence of anthropogenic change.Factors influencing the distribution of genetic variation Persistence in the face of climate change is likely determined by life history characteristics: dispersal ability, generation time, reproductive ability, degree of habitat specialization, plant-insect interactions, existing genetic diversity and availability of habitat or migration corridors. Existing levels of genetic diversity in plant populations vary based on a number of evolutionary scenarios that include endemism, expansion since the last glacial maximum, breeding system and current range sizes.Regional priorities and examples A number of well-documented examples are provided from the California Floristic Province. Some predictions can be made for the responses of plant taxa to rapid environmental changes based on geographic position, evolutionary history, existing genetic variation, and ecological amplitude.Conclusions, Solutions and Recommendations The prediction of how species will respond to climate change will require a synthesis drawing from population genetics, geography, palaeontology and ecology. The important integration of the historical factors that have shaped the distribution and existing genetic structure of California's plant taxa will enable us to predict and prioritize the conservation of species and areas most likely to be impacted by rapid climate change, human disturbance and invasive species.

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“…Such potential resilience has been attributed to forb species in other arid systems (Salguero‐Gómez et al. ; Gremer et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

The influence of seasonal precipitation and grass competition on 20 years of forb dynamics in northern Chihuahuan Desert grassland

Mulhouse

Hallett

Collins

2016

J Vegetation Science

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Aims In arid grasslands forbs represent a large component of species diversity and provide a key resource for pollinators and consumers. However, low abundances and high temporal variability make it challenging to successfully predict forb presence and abundance from 1 yr to the next. In this study we: (1) characterize patterns of semi‐arid forb diversity and abundance over time; (2) determine the relative importance of direct vs indirect (via grass competition) effects of precipitation on forb richness and abundance; and (3) separate the effect of precipitation timing on forb community composition from the effects of precipitation amount and season. Location Semi‐arid grassland, Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, Socorro County, central New Mexico, USA. Methods We analysed forb dynamics along two 400‐m long line‐intercept transects in response to inter‐annual and seasonal precipitation variability and abundance of perennial grasses using a unique 20‐yr species composition data set from ungrazed native grassland in the northern Chihuahuan Desert. Results Forb richness and cover were significantly positively associated with precipitation across seasons. Total richness was high across the time series but substantially lower within any given year. A direct, positive effect of precipitation overrode any potential negative, indirect effect via grass competition. Although aggregate forb responses were strongly linked with precipitation, individual species responses were highly variable and generally not linked with either precipitation timing or season. Conclusions In the hotter, drier climate predicted by meteorological models for the US southwest, forbs may be negatively impacted if winter moisture decreases and monsoon precipitation becomes more variable. On the other hand, the flexibility exhibited by forbs in germination and establishment throughout the growing season may help buffer some common species to increased inter‐annual precipitation variability.

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A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants

Cited by 112 publications

References 106 publications

Phenotypic response of plants to simulated climate change in a long-term rain-manipulation experiment: a multi-species study

Phenotypic response of plants to simulated climate change in a long-term rain-manipulation experiment: a multi-species study

Population-level genetic variation and climate change in a biodiversity hotspot

The influence of seasonal precipitation and grass competition on 20 years of forb dynamics in northern Chihuahuan Desert grassland

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