A Delayed Action Oscillator for ENSO

Suárez, Max J.; Schopf, Paul S.

doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<3283:adaofe>2.0.co;2

Cited by 804 publications

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“…The latter is formally identical to a classical delayed oscillator equation (Bhattacharya et al 1982;Suarez and Schopf 1988;Battisti and Hirst 1989;Bar-Eli and Field 1998;Marshall et al 2000), except that x is a red-noise, rather than a white-noise process. More importantly, however, the possibility of active coupling between x and y stems from the atmospheric model's nonlinear sensitivity to the oceanic state; the latter sensitivity is expressed via non-Gaussian changes to the atmospheric-flow PDF, namely the atmospheric mean state changes as in (14); see also Neelin and Weng (1999).…”

Section: A Simplified Conceptual Modelmentioning

confidence: 94%

A mechanistic model of mid-latitude decadal climate variability

Kravtsov

Dewar

Ghil

et al. 2008

Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena

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A simple heuristic model of coupled decadal ocean-atmosphere modes in middle latitudes is developed. Previous studies have treated atmospheric intrinsic variability as a linear stochastic process modified by a deterministic coupling to the ocean.The present paper takes an alternative view: based on observational, as well as process modeling results, it represents this variability in terms of irregular transitions between two anomalously persistent, high-latitude and low-latitude jet-stream states. Atmospheric behavior is thus governed by an equation analogous to that describing the trajectory of a particle in a double-well potential, subject to stochastic forcing. Oceanic adjustment to a positional shift in the atmospheric jet involves persistent circulation anomalies maintained by the action of baroclinic eddies; this process is parameterized in the model as a delayed oceanic response. The associated sea-surface temperature anomalies provide heat fluxes that affect atmospheric circulation by modifying the shape of the double-well potential. If the latter coupling is strong enough, the model's spectrum exhibits a peak at a periodicity related to the ocean's eddy-driven adjustment time. A nearly analytical approximation of the coupled model is used to study the sensitivity of this behavior to key model parameters.

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Section: A Simplified Conceptual Modelmentioning

confidence: 94%

A mechanistic model of mid-latitude decadal climate variability

Kravtsov

Dewar

Ghil

et al. 2008

Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena

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“…[3] The processes described above comprise modern theories and models of ENSO evolution [Battisti, 1988;Schopf and Suarez, 1987;Suarez and Schopf, 1988;Zebiak and Cane, 1987;Neelin et al, 1998;Blanke et al, 1997;Fedorov, 2002;Penland and Matrosova, 1994]. These theories and models, however, have yet to explain the fine details behind the initiation of an event and the role global change plays.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unfolding the relation between global temperature and ENSO

Tsonis

Elsner

Hunt

et al. 2005

Geophysical Research Letters

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[1] An analysis of global temperature and ENSO data indicates that their relationship is more complicated than currently thought. Indeed, it appears that there are two complimenting aspects to this relation. The first (and known) aspect expresses the fact that global temperature increases after an El Nino event and a La Nina event follows an El Nino event. Thus, El Nino forces global temperature. While this is an important result, it is not the entire picture. If it were, ENSO would be independent of global temperature. The second aspect, which is proposed here, suggests a deeper connection between global temperature and ENSO. We find that ENSO is not independent and that positive (negative) global temperature tendency tends to trigger an El Nino (La Nina). Thus, in a warming climate El Nino events will be more frequent than La Nina events. The methodology presented in this paper may elucidate how realistically coupled ocean-atmosphere models simulate the response of climate to global change.

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“…In the negative cold phase of ENSO, La Niña, easterlies intensify even further and SSTs in the central/east Pacific become lower than normal (Figure 3(b)). Although the main physical mechanisms are reasonably well understood and have also been synthesized by idealized theoretical models such as the 'delayed oscillator', the 'recharge oscillator' and others (Suarez and Schopf, 1988;Jin, 1997;Wang, 2001;Burgers et al, 2005) Expanding on the last question, it is apparent that ENSO is locked to the annual cycle. Take El Niños for instance.…”

Section: The Scientific Basis Of Seasonal Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal climate forecasting

Troccoli

2010

Met. Apps

112

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ABSTRACT:The fascination of seasonal climate forecasting, of which El Niño forecasting is the prime example, comes from its multi-faceted character. Not only does it pose interesting new challenges for the climate scientific community but also it is naturally linked to a great variety of socio-economic applications. Seasonal climate forecasts are indeed becoming a most important element in some policy/decision making systems, especially within the context of climate change adaptation. Thus, seriously considering the management of risks posed by the variability of climate on the seasonal to interannual time scale is key to achieving the longer terms goals of climate change adaptation strategy. This review paper explores the main components needed to construct a seasonal forecasting system, from the physical basis of climate seasonal predictions, to the tools used for producing them, to the importance of assessing their skill, to their use in risk management decision-making. Future challenges are also examined.

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A Delayed Action Oscillator for ENSO

Cited by 804 publications

References 0 publications

A mechanistic model of mid-latitude decadal climate variability

A mechanistic model of mid-latitude decadal climate variability

Unfolding the relation between global temperature and ENSO

Seasonal climate forecasting

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