A degree-day model for regional prediction of first occurrence of frit flies in oats in Sweden

Lindblad, M.; Sigvald, Roland

doi:10.1016/0261-2194(96)00024-5

Cited by 14 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…They have been extensively developed for crop pests (e.g. Lindblad & Sigvald, 1996) but, perhaps surprisingly, have been given relatively little attention for pests and parasites of livestock (MacLeod, 1939; Gettinby & Gardiner, 1980).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and validation of a simulation model for blowfly strike of sheep

Wall

Cruickshank

Smith

et al. 2002

Medical Vet Entomology

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Abstract. A comprehensive simulation model for sheep blowfly strike due to Lucilia sericata (Meigen) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), which builds on previously published versions but also incorporates important new empirical data, is used to explain patterns of lamb and ewe strike recorded on 370 farms in south-west, south-east and central England and Wales. The model is able to explain a significant percentage of the variance in lamb strike incidence in all four regions, and ewe strike in three of the four regions. The model is able to predict the start of seasonal blowfly strike within one week in three of the four regions for both ewes and lambs, and within 3 weeks in the fourth region. It is concluded that the accuracy of the model will allow it to be used to assess the likely efficacy of new control techniques and the effects of changes in existing husbandry practices on strike incidence. The model could also be used to give sheep farmers advance warning of approaching strike problems. However, the ability to forecast future strike patterns is dependent on the accuracy of the weather projections; the more long-term the forecast, the more approximate the prediction is likely to be. When applied on a regional basis, model forecasts indicate expected average patterns of strike incidence and may not therefore be appropriate for individual farmers whose husbandry practices differ substantially from the average.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and validation of a simulation model for blowfly strike of sheep

Wall

Cruickshank

Smith

et al. 2002

Medical Vet Entomology

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“…Degree-days have been used in phenological analysis applied to different kind of crops, both in temperate zones (Narwal et al, 1986;Allen and O'brien, 1986;Undersander and Christiansen, 1986;Jones et al, 1991;Sharratt et al, 1989;Spencer et al, 2000;Spencer and Ksander, 2006) and in tropical zones as well (Lemos et al, 1997;McBeth et al, 2001;Bell and Wright, 1998;Jullien et al, 2008;Guan et al, 2009). Degree-days also have been used in insect phenology studies (Tokeshi, 1985;Lindblad and Sigvald, 1996;Hart et al, 1997;Broufas and Koveos, 2000;Milonas et al, 2001;Olsen, 2003;Hirata and Higashi, 2008;Kumral et al, 2008;Naves and Sousa, 2009;Nietschke et al, 2007;Elliot et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of eight degree-days estimation methods in four agroecological regions in Colombia

2012

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Eight methods were used to estimate degree-days in four Colombian localities. Four methods have been previously proposed in literature: Simple Sine, Double Sine, Simple Triangle, and Double Triangle methods. The other four methods are proposed in this research: Simple Logistic, Double Logistic, Simple Normal, and Double Normal. The estimation of the degree-days through hourly temperature values was used as the reference standard method, and the four localities from where the temperature values were taken were the municipalities of Cajicá (Cundinamarca), Santa Elena (Antioquia), Carepa (Urabá Antioqueño), and Ciudad Bolivar (Zona cafetera Antioqueña). Degree-days obtained by all methods under study were compared through linear regression to those obtained by the reference standard method. There were differences in the correlation of each method to the reference when compared within each region and among regions. The Simple Logistic and Double Logistic methods showed the best performance with acceptable R 2 values and considerably lower bias than the other methods. The poorest fit was found in Cajicá, where the average R 2 was 0.571. For the regions of Santa Elena and Carepa, the average R 2 was 0.756 and 0.733. The best fit was found in Ciudad Bolivar, with an average R 2 of 0.826.Key words: degree-days, thermal time, temperature threshold, statistical modeling. Comparação de oito métodos para calcular graus-dia em quatro regiões agroecológicas ResumoEstimativas de graus-dia foram obtidas pelos métodos de seno simples e duplo, triangulo simples e duplo, as quais são amplamente utilizadas. Quatro novos métodos foram propostos e avaliados nesta pesquisa: logística simples e dupla, normal simples e dupla, baseadas em regressão logística e distribuição normal. Registros horários de temperatura obtidos em Cajicá (Cundinamarca), Santa Elena (Antioquia), Carepa (Urabá Antioqueño) e Ciudad Bolivar (Região tradicional da cultura do café) foram utilizados para obter estimativas da soma térmica com maior precisão sendo, portanto, considerada como a referên-cia para comparação utilizando regressão linear. Foram constatadas diferenças entre o ajuste dos métodos dentro de cada região e entre regiões. Foram observados os maiores coeficientes de determinação (R 2 ), nos métodos de logística simples e logística dupla. O menor coeficiente de determinação, de 0,571, foi obtido em Cajicá enquanto nas regiões de Medellín e Carepa, o R 2 foi de 0,756 e 0,733 respectivamente. O melhor ajuste foi obtido em Ciudad Bolivar, com um R 2 igual a 0,826.Palavras-chave: graus-dia, tempo térmico, temperatura basal, modelagem estatística.

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“…Life cycle of frit fly is ca. 20-60 days, eggs are laid one or in groups (1-15 eggs) behind sheath of first leaf, fecundity reaches 25-30 eggs, and embryonic development lasts (4-10 days) Lindblad and Sigvald (1996). Larvae hatch (three instars) and feed by tunnelling in stems to crown near soil surface.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The larvae of older instars feed on tissues of growing-points. The larvae period lasts 13-20 days (Volkmar and Wetzel 1984;Lindblad and Sigvald 1996). Tillers attacked by frit fly show the classic 'dead heart' symptoms of a yellow central leaf which can be easily pulled away from the surrounding green leaves.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effect of Weather Conditions on Frit Fly (Oscinella frit, Diptera: Chloropidae) Activity and Infestation Levels in Spring Wheat in Central Germany

El-Wakeil

Volkmar

2011

Gesunde Pflanzen

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effects of temperature, rainfall and solar radiation on frit fly (Oscinella frit) population and infestation level were evaluated in two wheat varieties in central germany during 2008-2010. The effect colour of water traps (blue, white and yellow) -used in population determination-on their efficiency was also evaluated. Strong correlation was found between weather parameters and trap catches (R 2 between 0.8 and 0.98).

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A degree-day model for regional prediction of first occurrence of frit flies in oats in Sweden

Cited by 14 publications

References 16 publications

Development and validation of a simulation model for blowfly strike of sheep

Development and validation of a simulation model for blowfly strike of sheep

Comparison of eight degree-days estimation methods in four agroecological regions in Colombia

Effect of Weather Conditions on Frit Fly (Oscinella frit, Diptera: Chloropidae) Activity and Infestation Levels in Spring Wheat in Central Germany

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