A Decrease in the Regulatory Effect of Snow-Related Phenomena in Spanish Mountain Areas Due to Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change undoubtedly will affect snow events as temperature and precipitation are expected to change in the future. Spanish mountains are especially affected by that situation, since snow storage is there focussed on very specific periods of the hydrological year and plays a very important role in the management of water resources. In this study, an analysis of the behaviour of the complex snow-related phenomena in the four main mountain regions of Spain in the next 50 years is conducted. The ASTER hydrological model is applied using temperature and precipitation data as basic input, estimated under a climate change scenario. Results show different changes in the maximum and average expected flows, depending on the very different magnitude and sign of changes in precipitation. An increase of flooding episodes may occur as a result of a complex relation between changes in precipitation and an increase in maximum snowmelt intensities that range from 2.1% in the Pyrenees to 7.4% in the Cantabrian Mountains. However, common patterns are shown in a shorter duration of the snow bulk reserves, expected to occur 45 days earlier for the Cantabrian Mountains, and about 30 days for the rest of the studied mountain regions. Changes observed also lead to a concerning decrease in the regulatory effect of the snow-related phenomena in the Spanish rivers, with a decrease in the average snow accumulation that ranges from about 28% for the Pyrenees and Sierra Nevada to 42% for the Central System and the Cantabrian Mountains. A decrease in average flow is expected, fluctuating from 2.4% in the Pyrenees to 7.3% in Cantabrian Mountains, only increasing in the Central System by 4.0%, making all necessary to develop new adaptation measures to climate change.

A Case Study of a Large Unstable Mass Stabilization: “El Portalet” Pass at the Central Spanish Pyrenees

“…This acceleration in a given year was also observed in 2005 for the same period, April to September. That period corresponds to the spring season when precipitations normally occur in the area under study together with the snowmelt phenomenon [49]. Thus, these results confirm the influence of the water table in the landslide stability, the long-term tendency observed in the evolution of the slope movement and the long time needed to attain drainage of the ground mass (Supplementary Materials).…”

“…This acceleration in a given year was also observed in 2005 for the same period, April to September. That period corresponds to the spring season when precipitations normally occur in the area under study together with the snowmelt phenomenon [49]. Thus, these results confirm the influence of the wa-…”

“…Regional climatology showed a direct influence on the water table evolution. The region under study presents high values of rain and snow precipitation as well as snowmelt events [49], all of which prevent the water table from decreasing efficiently. According to the data obtained by the inclinometers installed at the geotechnical investigations, during certain periods of the year the water table increases, as indicated by the landslide acceleration in 2016.…”

Spatiotemporal patterns of microclimatic buffering in relict alpine communities

“…Our results from either vegetation resurveys or local modelling agree with the thermophilization process, but also indicate an increase in species with tolerance to winter freezing at the expense of species from snow‐protected microsites. If the predictions of decreasing snow precipitation are correct (Lastrada et al., 2021), the reduction of snow‐protected microsites will eventually result in the simplification of microclimatic gradients and the homogenization of local plant communities. This would increase the extinction risk of species adapted to topographically protected sites, reducing the effect of microclimatic buffering.…”

Flood Hazards in Flat Coastal Areas of the Eastern Iberian Peninsula: A Case Study in Oliva (Valencia, Spain)

“…The Eastern Iberian Peninsula is characterized by the abundance of this type of ephemeral streams. Recent studies show that the Mediterranean Sea will be one of the most affected areas by climate change in the coming decades, especially in the west of it [49,50]. Climate change is expected to result in a rise in its water temperature, salinity, and an increase in the sea level.…”