A decision tree algorithm to identify predictors of post-stroke complex regional pain syndrome

Abstract

This prospective cohort study aimed to identify the risk factors for post-stroke complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) using a decision tree algorithm while comprehensively assessing upper limb and lower limb disuse and physical inactivity. Upper limb disuse (Fugl-Meyer assessment of upper extremity [FMA-UE], Action Research Arm Test, Motor Activity Log), lower limb disuse (Fugl-Meyer Assessment of lower extremity [FMA-LE]), balance performance (Berg balance scale), and physical inactivity time (International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form [IPAQ-SF]) of 195 stroke patients who visited the Kishiwada Rehabilitation Hospital were assessed at admission. The incidence of post-stroke CRPS was 15.4% in all stroke patients 3 months after admission. The IPAQ, FMA-UE, and FMA-LE were extracted as risk factors for post-stroke CRPS. According to the decision tree algorithm, the incidence of post-stroke CRPS was 1.5% in patients with a short physical inactivity time (IPAQ-SF < 635), while it increased to 84.6% in patients with a long inactivity time (IPAQ-SF ≥ 635) and severe disuse of upper and lower limbs (FMA-UE score < 19.5; FMA-LE score < 16.5). The incidence of post-stroke CRPS may increase with lower-limb disuse and physical inactivity, in addition to upper-limb disuse. Increasing physical activity and addressing lower- and upper-limb motor paralysis may reduce post-stroke CRPS.