A Decision-Support System for Assessing Cross-Country Pipeline Systems: Approach Based on Evidential Reasoning and Cost–Benefit Analysis

Abstract

This paper outlines a decision support model based on Evidential Reasoning (ER) and Cost-Benefit-Analysis (CBA) to support the assessment of risk control measures for pipeline loss of containment following third party damage. The model identifies the main Risk Control Options (RCOs) as basic attributes, which are grouped into three categories: technical or technological, governmental and managerial solutions. The CBA examines the costs associated with the loss of containment in regard to human safety, the economic and environmental aspects that are required to reduce or eliminate the threat of using RCOs. ER is chosen because of its capability in dealing with Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems with uncertainties, aggregation of conflicting information and the hybrid nature of the information. This corresponds with the challenges of analysing different and often conflicting information identified in this study. The results show the attributes of each decision, their effectiveness in reducing the failure likelihood and the estimated cost of each attribute. The study reduces the complexity of the decision-making into a simple hierarchical output and provide guidance to the infrastructure operator. This makes it possible for the operator to select one or more risk reduction attributes and immediately see a potential reduction in the failure likelihood. Furthermore, the study provides knowledge to the operator on budgetary expenditure required to implement the RCO.