A decision support system for updating and incorporating climate change impacts into rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves: Review of the stakeholder involvement process

Sandink, Dan; Simonović́, Slobodan P.; Schardong, André; Srivastav, Roshan

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.06.012

Cited by 42 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…T = 1/(1 − Fp(P )), where Fp(P ) is the cumulative probability of the underlying distribution), and graphically as a decision relevant metric in the form of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves (or relations) (ASCE, 2006;CSA, 2010;EC, 2012). These curves are based on a comprehensive statistical analysis of historical rainfall records and are widely used for the design and operation of storm-water and sewerage systems, and other engineered hydraulic structures (Coulibaly and Shi, 2005;Durrans and Brown, 2001;Lima et al, 2016;Madsen et al, 2009;Rana et al, 2013;Sandink et al, 2016;Yilmaz et al, 2014a). At a given return period and storm duration, the average DSI is determined from the IDF relationship.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does nonstationarity in rainfall require nonstationary intensity–duration–frequency curves?

Ganguli

Coulibaly

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In Canada, risk of flooding due to heavy rainfall has risen in recent decades; the most notable recent examples include the July 2013 storm in the Greater Toronto region and the May 2017 flood of the Toronto Islands. We investigate nonstationarity and trends in the short-duration precipitation extremes in selected urbanized locations in Southern Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the potential of nonstationary intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, which form an input to civil infrastructural design. Despite apparent signals of nonstationarity in precipitation extremes in all locations, the stationary vs. nonstationary models do not exhibit any significant differences in the design storm intensity, especially for short recurrence intervals (up to 10 years). The signatures of nonstationarity in rainfall extremes do not necessarily imply the use of nonstationary IDFs for design considerations. When comparing the proposed IDFs with current design standards, for return periods (10 years or less) typical for urban drainage design, current design standards require an update of up to 7 %, whereas for longer recurrence intervals (50-100 years), ideal for critical civil infrastructural design, updates ranging between ∼ 2 and 44 % are suggested. We further emphasize that the above findings need re-evaluation in the light of climate change projections since the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation are expected to intensify due to global warming.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does nonstationarity in rainfall require nonstationary intensity–duration–frequency curves?

Ganguli

Coulibaly

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…As much as the literature acknowledges the valuable contributions of such EDSS, it is also asserted that these tools are often not used beyond the development and pilot project phase (Dilling and Lemos 2011;McIntosh et al 2011;Lemos et al 2012;Meyer et al 2015;Moeseneder et al 2015;Sandink et al 2016;Merritt et al 2017;Rodela et al 2017;Zasada et al 2017;Zulkafli et al 2017). It has been suggested that a lack of continuity of staff may be detrimental to long-term relationship building and also results in a lack of in-depth subject knowledge that would support the ongoing use of the EDSS (Campbell et al 2015;Meyer et al 2015).…”

Section: Environmental Decision Support Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Yet, it appears that climate change adaptation plans are often not adequately consulted after their completion, and that once the research and development phase ends, the valuable project outcomes are often not considered for future use (Koontz ; Meyer et al ; Sandink et al ; Merritt et al ; Zasada et al ; Zulkafli et al ). The literature has noted the value of having an embedded representative in at least one organization involved in the project to serve as a champion for the EDSS being adopted into ongoing actions and plans (Dilling and Lemos ; McIntosh et al ; Cairns et al ; Zasada et al ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stakeholder engagement with environmental decision support systems: The perspective of end users

Reiter

Meyer

Parrott

2019

Canadian Geographies / Géographies canadiennes

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Environmental decision support systems (EDSS) are designed to assist natural resource managers and stakeholders to assess problems and select options for change. EDSS that combine community engagement in developing future scenarios with computer‐based land use planning and modelling tools are widely used internationally. However, these EDSS are often not used after the research and development phase. To best understand why the EDSS are not being used in the long term, the end users of the EDSS should be consulted—a perspective that is lacking in the literature. The research reported here presents the perspectives of stakeholders involved in a community climate change adaptation project in western Canada. Evidence from the community suggests that this project was successful in instigating change. However, the EDSS was not used after the project's end. Our findings indicate that, from the end users’ perspective, the project could have had much greater and sustained success had there been ongoing engagement and communication with them, particularly in the form of continued support for the use of EDSS after the development project.

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“…The tool allows users to generate IDF curve information based on observed data as well as future climate projections using projected precipitation series from the GCMs. Multiple future greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) are available in the tool for 24 GCMs simulating various climate conditions that affect local rainfall data [34,35].…”

Section: Rainfall and Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the climate change scenarios, the IDF_CC tool [34][35][36] was used to create the updated IDF curves. The tool allows users to generate IDF curve information based on observed data as well as future climate projections using projected precipitation series from the GCMs.…”

Section: Rainfall and Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts and Flood Control Measures for Highly Developed Urban Watersheds

Silva

Schardong

Garcia

et al. 2018

Water

Self Cite

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Flooding and overflow are recurring problems in several Brazilian cities, which usually face disorderly development. The causes vary, and include increased impervious surface areas, deficiency/inefficiency of drainage structures and lack of maintenance, siltation of rivers, channel obstructions, and climatic factors. In this paper, we present an analysis of mitigation measures to minimize flooding in a watershed located in the core of the city of São Paulo, the biggest city with the highest gross domestic product (GDP) in Brazil. Observed rainfall records and existing intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves for the region are used to obtain design storms. To account for climate change, the equidistance quantile matching method for updating IDF curves under climate change, a well-known procedure, was applied to the existing historical data. Several different global climate models (GCMs) and one regional model were applied to obtain and update rainfall design storms. The GCMs and future scenarios used were from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5) and two future projections-representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Spatially distributed reservoirs combined with low-impact development (LID) measures were used to evaluate different design storm scenarios combined with return periods of 25 and 100 years as well as the updated IDF under climate change for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Results show that the proposed changes to the drainage system can help reduce the risk and damage of flooding. The climate change scenarios, however, impose a significant threat and need immediate attention from city planners and stakeholders.

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A decision support system for updating and incorporating climate change impacts into rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves: Review of the stakeholder involvement process

Cited by 42 publications

References 40 publications

Does nonstationarity in rainfall require nonstationary intensity–duration–frequency curves?

Does nonstationarity in rainfall require nonstationary intensity–duration–frequency curves?

Stakeholder engagement with environmental decision support systems: The perspective of end users

Climate Change Impacts and Flood Control Measures for Highly Developed Urban Watersheds

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