A Decision Support Model for Uncertainty Reasoning in Safety and Security Tasks

Michels, Steffen; Velikova, Marina; Hommersom, Arjen; Lucas, Peter

doi:10.1109/smc.2013.118

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…However, these shocks have not been compared with each other yet, especially from a quantitative and network perspective. Scholarly studies looked at law and economic issues such as the implementation of antiterrorism policies for general freight in the case of New York (Bradbury, 2010;MacPherson et al, 2006;Rose et al, 2010) and in wider maritime-related terrorism studies (Michels et al, 2013;Richardson, 2004), and the geographical and urban dimensions of terrorism (Cowen and Bunce, 2006;Cutter et al, 2014). These works provide a lot of precise information on each disruption that enrich our comparative perspective.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disruptions in Spatial Networks: a Comparative Study of Major Shocks Affecting Ports and Shipping Patterns

Rousset

Ducruet

2019

Netw Spat Econ

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In this research, the effect of local exogenous shocks on seaports and maritime networks is assessed throughout three case-studies. The Hanshin-Awaji earthquake, the 9/11 World Trade Center attack and hurricane Katrina triggered a shock on Kobe, New York and New Orleans respectively and led to temporary port failures. A global database on vessel movements is computed to gauge the intensity, duration and scope of these shocks with descriptive statistics. Port-centered analyses of the disrupted ports and their geographic as well as topological neighbors are conducted to assess the resilience of local port systems using traffic volumes, distances, and graph-theoretical methods at various time scales, from daily to yearly evolutions. Main results demonstrate certain similarities between the three cases given the importance of traffic specialization and of the spatial range of disruption.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disruptions in Spatial Networks: a Comparative Study of Major Shocks Affecting Ports and Shipping Patterns

Rousset

Ducruet

2019

Netw Spat Econ

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“…The research work was carried out as part of the Metis project under the responsibility of Embedded Systems Innovation by TNO, with Thales Nederland B.V. as the carrying industrial partner. metabolic networks [2], discovering interactions between genes [3], dealing with a potentially unknown number of relations between multiple objects by a robot [3] and fusing information about vessels on the North Sea by modelling relations between those objects and heterogeneous pieces of information [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new probabilistic constraint logic programming language based on a generalised distribution semantics

Michels

Hommersom

Lucas

et al. 2015

Artificial Intelligence

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Probabilistic logics combine the expressive power of logic with the ability to reason with uncertainty. Several probabilistic logic languages have been proposed in the past, each of them with their own features. We focus on a class of probabilistic logic based on Sato's distribution semantics, which extends logic programming with probability distributions on binary random variables and guarantees a unique probability distribution. For many applications binary random variables are, however, not sufficient and one requires random variables with arbitrary ranges, e.g. real numbers. We tackle this problem by developing a generalised distribution semantics for a new probabilistic constraint logic programming language. In order to perform exact inference, imprecise probabilities are taken as a starting point, i.e. we deal with sets of probability distributions rather than a single one. It is shown that given any continuous distribution, conditional probabilities of events can be approximated arbitrarily close to the true probability. Furthermore, for this setting an inference algorithm that is a generalisation of weighted model counting is developed, making use of SMT solvers. We show that inference has similar complexity properties as precise probabilistic inference, unlike most imprecise methods for which inference is more complex. We also experimentally confirm that our algorithm is able to exploit local structure, such as determinism, which further reduces the computational complexity.

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“…The structure of the model expresses the domain knowledge in a natural way [HVSM15]. A more detailed description of this model as used in the Maritime Safety and Security Domain (MSSD) is given by Michels et al [MVHL13]. Such a reasoning approach is similar to widely used Bayesian Networks [Pea88], but more general due to the first-order nature of the used language.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The increased expressive power is necessary for safety and security tasks, as they involve a dynamic number of objects and dynamic amounts of information. A more detailed description of this model as used in the Maritime Safety and Security Domain (MSSD) is given by Michels et al [MVHL13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rationale Visualization for Safety and Security

Scheepens

Michels

Wetering

et al. 2015

Computer Graphics Forum

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In safety and security domains where objects of interest (OOI), such as people, vessels, or transactions, are continuously monitored, automated reasoning is required due to their sheer number and volume of information. We present a method to visually explain the rationale of a reasoning engine that raises an alarm if a certain situation is reached. Based both on evidence from heterogeneous and possibly unreliable sources, and on a domain specific reasoning structure, this engine concludes with a certain probability that, e.g., the OOI is suspected of smuggling. To support decision making, we visualize the rationale, an abstraction of the complicated reasoning structure. The evidence is displayed in a color‐coded matrix that easily reveals if and where observations contradict. In it, domain and operational experts can quickly understand and find complicated patterns and relate them to real‐world situations. Also, two groups of these experts evaluate our system through maritime use cases based on real data.

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A Decision Support Model for Uncertainty Reasoning in Safety and Security Tasks

Cited by 5 publications

References 5 publications

Disruptions in Spatial Networks: a Comparative Study of Major Shocks Affecting Ports and Shipping Patterns

Disruptions in Spatial Networks: a Comparative Study of Major Shocks Affecting Ports and Shipping Patterns

A new probabilistic constraint logic programming language based on a generalised distribution semantics

Rationale Visualization for Safety and Security

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