A Decision-Analytic Feasibility Study of Upgrading Machinery at a Tools Workshop

Abstract

This paper presents the evaluation, from a Decision Analysis point of view, of the feasibility of upgrading machinery at an existing metal-forming workshop. The Integral Decision Analysis (IDA) methodology is applied to clarify the decision and develop a decision model. One of the key advantages of the IDA is its careful selection of the problem frame, allowing a correct problem definition. While following most of the original IDA methodology, an addition to this methodology is proposed in this work, that of using the strategic Means-Ends Objective Network as a backbone for the development of the decision model. The constructed decision model uses influence diagrams to include factual operator and vendor expertise, simulation to evaluate the alternatives and a utility function to take into account the risk attitude of the decision maker. Three alternatives are considered: Base (no modification), CNC (installing an automatic lathe) and CF (installation of an automatic milling machine). The results are presented as a graph showing zones in which a particular alternative should be selected. The results show the potential of IDA to tackle technical decisions that are otherwise approached without the due care.

A Stochastic Simulator of a Multi-Component Distillation Tower Built as an Excel Macro

“…Reviews of dynamic simulation applications for optimizing energy and chemical systems are shown in [3,4], while applications of discrete event simulation to the optimization of industrial systems can be found in [4][5][6]. Usage of simulation in specific situations are presented in [7] for sustainable plant design, in [8] for gasifier pressure modeling, and in [9] for analyzing a petrochemical process wastewater plant.…”