A Data-Driven Method for Arrival Sequencing and Scheduling Problem

Abstract

Decision support tools for arrival sequencing and scheduling could assist air traffic controllers in managing the arrival aircraft in terminal areas. However, one critical issue is that the current method for dealing with the arrival sequencing and scheduling problem does not consider the dynamic traffic situation and the human working experience, which results in a deviation between the scheduled and actual landing sequences. This paper develops a data-driven method to address this issue. Firstly, the random forest model is applied to predict the estimated time of arrival (ETA). During the ETA prediction, the trajectory, operation, and airport-related factors that could increase the prediction accuracy are considered. Secondly, the landing sequence is obtained by sorting the predicted ETAs. Thirdly, two optimization methods are proposed to generate the scheduled time of arrival (STA). The former uses the predicted ETAs as inputs and then directly optimizes the landing sequence and the STA. The latter uses both the predicted ETA and the landing sequence as inputs for further optimization. Finally, these proposed methods are evaluated with three sets of historical data on arrival operations at Changsha Huanghua International Airport (ZGHA). The results show that the RF-based ETA prediction method could improve scheduling performance. Moreover, the proposed optimization methods could provide controllers with a more appropriate decision advisory. Such advisories could simultaneously reduce the operation efficiency indicators (average/maximum delay or dwell time) and the operation complexity indicators (Kendall rank correlation or position shift).