A data-driven assessment of early travel restrictions related to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 within mainland China

Aleta, Alberto; Hu, Qitong; Ye, Jiachen; Ji, Peng; Moreno, Yamir

doi:10.1101/2020.03.05.20031740

Cited by 10 publications

(11 citation statements)

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“…The papers that used a metapopulation approach in the sample under investigation here cover several important angles such as the spatial heterogeneity of the pandemic due to local differences in the implementation of NPIs and/or features of population distributions [107] , [116] , [117] , the first pandemic wave and the efficacy of the measures put in place [108] , [109] , [110] , [111] , [112] , [113] , [121] , and reopening scenarios [106] , [114] , [115] , [118] . Let’s dive in some details.…”

Section: Epidemic Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: A review

2021

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Infectious diseases and human behavior are intertwined. On one side, our movements and interactions are the engines of transmission. On the other, the unfolding of viruses might induce changes to our daily activities. While intuitive, our understanding of such feedback loop is still limited. Before COVID-19 the literature on the subject was mainly theoretical and largely missed validation. The main issue was the lack of empirical data capturing behavioral change induced by diseases. Things have dramatically changed in 2020. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the key weapon against the SARS-CoV-2 virus and affected virtually any societal process. Travels bans, events cancellation, social distancing, curfews, and lockdowns have become unfortunately very familiar. The scale of the emergency, the ease of survey as well as crowdsourcing deployment guaranteed by the latest technology, several Data for Good programs developed by tech giants, major mobile phone providers, and other companies have allowed unprecedented access to data describing behavioral changes induced by the pandemic. Here, I review some of the vast literature written on the subject of NPIs during the COVID-19 pandemic. In doing so, I analyze 348 articles written by more than 2518 of authors in the first 12 months of the emergency. While the large majority of the sample was obtained by querying PubMed, it includes also a hand-curated list. Considering the focus, and methodology I have classified the sample into seven main categories: epidemic models, surveys, comments/perspectives, papers aiming to quantify the effects of NPIs, reviews, articles using data proxies to measure NPIs, and publicly available datasets describing NPIs. I summarize the methodology, data used, findings of the articles in each category and provide an outlook highlighting future challenges as well as opportunities.

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Section: Epidemic Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similar results, data and models in the context of China have been obtained also in Refs. [109] , [110] . Authors of Ref.…”

Section: Epidemic Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: A review

2021

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“…In considering the features of the BE in reflecting direct and indirect face-to-face communications, this study attempts to fill the research gaps by focusing on the spread of COVID-19 in its initial stage in China, measured by the ratio of accumulative confirmed infection cases. Studies on China have attracted various international attentions in terms of epidemic analysis (e.g., Ahmed et al, 2020 ; Han & Yang, 2020 ; Peng et al, 2020 ), policy measures (e.g., Aleta et al, 2020 ; Hasnain et al, 2020 ), environmental impacts (e.g., Giani et al, 2020 ), and global development (e.g., Schindler et al, 2020 ), etc. Such attentions may be because China’s responses can be a better reference for other countries to deal with both the current and future pandemics ( Altakarli, 2020 ; Xu et al, 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of built environment attributes with the spread of COVID-19 at its initial stage in China

Zhang

2021

Sustainable Cities and Society

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Highlights Focus on the spread of COVID-19 at its initial stages across the whole China. Reveal spatial clusters and outliers of the spread of COVID-19. Estimate a mixed geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. Capture both the global and local effects of inter-/intra-city built environment. Derive important policy implications from the built environment planning.

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“…42 Aleta et al estimated that the measures were effective in reducing the exportation of cases, but only in the short term. 43 Yuan also found the lockdown to be effective at reducing the number of cases outside of Wuhan but notes that the timing also coincided with a nationwide stay at home campaign imposed by the central Chinese government. 44…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence of the effectiveness of travel-related measures during the early phase of the COVID- 19 pandemic: a rapid systematic review

Grépin

Liu

et al. 2020

Preprint

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ObjectiveTo review evidence of the effectiveness of travel measures implemented during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to recommend change on how evidence is incorporated in the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR).DesignWe used an abbreviated preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analysis protocol (PRISMA-P) and a search strategy aimed to identify studies that investigated the effectiveness of travel-related measures (advice, entry and exit screening, medical examination or vaccination requirements, isolation or quarantine, the refusal of entry, and entry restrictions), pre-printed or published by June 1, 2020.ResultsWe identified 29 studies, of which 26 were modelled (vs. observational). Thirteen studies investigated international measures while 17 investigated domestic measures (one investigated both), including suspended transportation (24 studies), border restrictions (21), and screening (5). There was a high level of agreement that the adoption of travel measures led to important changes in the dynamics of the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, most of the identified studies investigated the initial export of cases out of Wuhan, which was found to be highly effective, but few studies investigated the effectiveness of measures implemented in other contexts. Early implementation was identified as a determinant of effectiveness. Most studies of international travel measures failed to account for domestic travel measures, and thus likely led to biased estimates. Poor data and other factors contributed to the low quality of the studies identified.ConclusionTravel measures, especially those implemented in Wuhan, played a key role in shaping the early transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, the effectiveness of these measures was short-lived. There is an urgent need to address important evidence gaps, but also a need to review the way in which evidence is incorporated in the IHR in the early phases of a novel infectious disease outbreak.What is already known on this subject?Previous reviews of the evidence from outbreaks of influenza and other infectious disease have generally found that there is limited evidence that travel-measures are effective at containing outbreaks.However, it is unclear if the lessons from other infectious disease outbreaks would be relevant in the context of COVID-19.Based on evidence at the time, WHO did not recommend any travel restrictions when it declared COVID-19 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.What does this study add?This study rapidly reviews the evidence on the effectiveness of travel measures implemented in the early phase of the pandemic on epidemiological countries.The study investigated both international and domestic travel measures and a wide range of travel measures.The study finds that the domestic travel measures implemented in Wuhan were effective at reducing the importation of cases internationally and within China. The study also finds that travel measures are more effective when implemented earlier in the outbreak.The findings generate recommendations on how to incorporate evidence into the International Health Regulations and highlights important research gaps that remain.How might this affect future outbreaks?The findings of this study suggest the need to decouple recommendations of travel measures from the declaration of a public health emergency of international concern.Highlights the need to evaluate the potential effectiveness of travel measures for each outbreak, and not just assume effectiveness based on past outbreak scnearios.

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A data-driven assessment of early travel restrictions related to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 within mainland China

Cited by 10 publications

References 11 publications

Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: A review

Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: A review

Association of built environment attributes with the spread of COVID-19 at its initial stage in China

Evidence of the effectiveness of travel-related measures during the early phase of the COVID- 19 pandemic: a rapid systematic review

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