A data-driven assessment of early travel restrictions related to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 within mainland China

Aleta, Alberto; Hu, Qitong; Ye, Jiachen; Ji, Peng; Moreno, Yamir

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110068

Cited by 47 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Similarly, Kraemer et al 44 also found that these travel measures dramatically reduced the transmission of the outbreak across the country, with areas that had greater prelockdown connectivity with Wuhan experiencing a greater decline. Aleta et al 45 estimated that the measures were effective in reducing the exportation of cases but only in the short term. Yuan also found the lockdown to be effective at reducing the number of cases outside of Wuhan but notes that the timing also coincided with a nationwide stay-at-home campaign imposed by the central Chinese government.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence of the effectiveness of travel-related measures during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid systematic review

Grépin

Liu

et al. 2021

BMJ Glob Health

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ObjectiveTo review the effectiveness of travel measures implemented during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic to inform changes on how evidence is incorporated in the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR).DesignWe used an abbreviated Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols to identify studies that investigated the effectiveness of travel-related measures preprinted or published by 1 June 2020.ResultsWe identified 29 studies, of which 26 were modelled. Thirteen studies investigated international measures, while 17 investigated domestic measures (one investigated both). There was a high level of agreement that the adoption of travel measures led to important changes in the dynamics of the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic: the Wuhan measures reduced the number of cases exported internationally by 70%–80% and led to important reductions in transmission within Mainland China. Additional travel measures, including flight restrictions to and from China, may have led to additional reductions in the number of exported cases. Few studies investigated the effectiveness of measures implemented in other contexts. Early implementation was identified as a determinant of effectiveness. Most studies of international travel measures did not account for domestic travel measures thus likely leading to biased estimates.ConclusionTravel measures played an important role in shaping the early transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is an urgent need to address important evidence gaps and also a need to review how evidence is incorporated in the IHR in the early phases of a novel infectious disease outbreak.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence of the effectiveness of travel-related measures during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid systematic review

Grépin

Liu

et al. 2021

BMJ Glob Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, the effectiveness of travel restrictions may be weakened once the outbreak is more widespread. Aleta et al (2020) assessed the effects of early travel restrictions in China by using a data-driven metapopulation model with mobility data corresponding to 2019 and 2020. Model results showed that travel restrictions could be considered an effective measure in the short term, but they might become ineffective for completely eliminating the disease.…”

Section: Literature Review Of Research On Covid-19 Policymakingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of transport-related COVID-19 policy measures: A case study of six developed countries

Zhang

Ding

et al. 2021

Transport Policy

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This study attempts to provide scientifically-sound evidence for designing more effective COVID-19 policies in the transport and public health sectors by comparing 418 policy measures (244 are transport measures) taken in different months of 2020 in Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, the UK, and the US. The effectiveness of each policy is measured using nine indicators of infections and mobilities corresponding to three periods (i.e., one week, two weeks, and one month) before and after policy implementation. All policy measures are categorized based on the PASS approach (P: prepare-protect-provide; A: avoid-adjust; S: shift-share; S: substitute-stop). First, policy effectiveness is compared between policies, between countries, and over time. Second, a dynamic Bayesian multilevel generalized structural equation model is developed to represent dynamic cause-effect relationships between policymaking, its influencing factors and its consequences, within a unified research framework. Third, major policy measures in the six countries are compared. Finally, findings for policymakers are summarized and extensively discussed.

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“…Travel restrictions are important but are not the only solution and must be carefully managed over time (Aleta et al 2020). For example, the model presented by Chinazzi et al (2020) reveals that travel restrictions have more effect in the initial weeks.…”

Section: Mobility In the Covid-19 Era: A Review Of Recent Contributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracking the Wings of Covid-19 by Modeling Adaptability with Open Mobility Data

Sousa

Barata

2020

Applied Artificial Intelligence

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The lifecycle of COVID-19 pandemic curves requires timely decisions to protect public health while minimizing the impact to global economy. New models are necessary to predict the effect of mobility suppression/reactivation decisions at a global scale. This research presents an approach to understand such tensions by modeling air travel restrictions during the new coronavirus outbreak. The paper begins with an updated review on the impact of air mobility in infectious disease progression, followed by the adoption of complex networks based on semi-supervised statistical learning. The model can be used to (1) determine the early identification of infectious disease spread via air travel and (2) align the need to keep the economy working with open connections and the different dynamic of national pandemic curves. The approach takes advantage of open data and machine self-supervised statistical learning to develop knowledge networks visualization. Test cases using Hong Kong and Wuhan aerial mobility are discussed in the decisions to (1) restrict and (2) increase mobility. The approach may also be of governments use in their international cooperation policy and commercial companies that need to choose how to prioritize the reopening of international trade routes.

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A data-driven assessment of early travel restrictions related to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 within mainland China

Cited by 47 publications

References 11 publications

Evidence of the effectiveness of travel-related measures during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid systematic review

Evidence of the effectiveness of travel-related measures during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid systematic review

Effects of transport-related COVID-19 policy measures: A case study of six developed countries

Tracking the Wings of Covid-19 by Modeling Adaptability with Open Mobility Data

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