A data‐driven approach to study the role of interconnectors in a future low‐carbon electricity supply system

Abstract

This paper investigates the potential role of the electricity interconnectors in improving the security of supply in Great Britain (GB) in 2030. Real electricity demand and price data for GB and France in 2016 were used to understand the relationship between power exchange between the two countries and their wholesale electricity prices. A linear programming optimisation model was developed to find the economic power dispatch. Two interconnection links were considered; two-way trade interconnector with a capacity of 5.4 GW and a 12.3 GW import-only interconnector between GB and other states. The GB-France link transmits electricity from cheaper system to the more expensive one. The total electricity demand in 2030 will be 406 TWh. Gas-fired power plants w/wo CCS will provide 83 TWh of the total electricity demand, whereas nuclear power plants will produce 74 TWh. In addition, wind farms and solar PVs are expected to deliver $120 TWh electricity. CHP units will provide 88 TWh electricity in 2030. The electricity traded between GB and France in 2030 was found to be 33 TWh, which is 160% larger compared with 2016. The power import from France is about 27 TWh and occurs in 59% of the time. For 64% of the time, the interconnector with France is fully loaded. The electricity imported via the 12.3 GW interconnector in 2030 is 1 TWh and mainly occurs during winter-time when the demand in GB is high. De-rated capacity margin was calculated based on instantaneous electricity demand and varies between −2% and 139%. The impact of the price of the imported electricity via the 12.3 GW link was investigated. Increasing the price of the imported electricity via the 12.3 GW link results in a higher capacity factor for all the generation options except the 12.3 GW interconnector link. K E Y W O R D S de-rated capacity margin, interconnector, linear programming, security of supply 1 | INTRODUCTION Exchanging electricity via interconnectors allows access to affordable energy supplies and has the potential to improve security of electricity supply. Interconnectors can reduce the electricity price for consumers by importing power at times when it is cheaper in the neighbouring countries. When the national demand is low, interconnectors enable the surplus power to be exported to a wider market.

The Future Impact of Carbon Tax on Electricity Flow between Great Britain and Its Neighbors until 2030

“…GB's 2030 energy system will include heavy usage of renewables for power production, no power production from unabated coal-fired plants, increased gas-fired power production (with and without carbon capturing and storage, CCS) to improve the energy system's flexibility, the use of electricity for heating, and enhanced power trading (imports/exports) to/from GB. The heat rate (efficiency), summer and winter availabilities, and ramping (up and down) rates of the electricity generation technologies were taken from [17,22].…”

“…where Z: objective function in £; i: generation technology, [17]; t: time step (0.5 h); C gen i : electricity generation cost of power plant i (£/MWh); P i,t : power production of technology i at time t (MW); and P Shedding t : shedding at time t (MW). Emission cost depends on the CO 2 tax.…”

“…(1) The heating technologies considered were combined heat and power (CHP) installations, gas and boiler, direct electric heaters, ground source heat pumps (GSHP), and air source heat pumps (ASHP). The contributions of heating technologies in heat supply were taken from [17,22] and correlated with the daily heat demand by Equation (2). It is expected that nearly 42% of GB's total heat demand by 2030 shall be provided via electricity.…”

“…The electricity consumption by direct electric heaters, ASHP, and GSHP at each half-hour of the day is a function of their heat output based on Equation (4). SPF j , the seasonal performance factors of electric heater, GSHP, and ASHP, were taken from [17,19]. Equation ( 4) states that intra-day high electricity demands are captured by direct electric heaters, ASHPs, and GSHPs.…”

“…GB's 2030 energy system is characterized by large portions of solar, wind, and biomass energy generation, enhanced cross-border interconnection capacity, and an electrified heating sector. This work is the continuation of recently published papers where the function of power-trade links between GB and the neighboring states, considering upscaling of renewables and a partly electrified heating sector by 2030, was investigated [17]. Two interconnectors were considered: (1) import-only link (IC1), and (2) a two-way trade one between France and GB (IC2).…”