A Cumulative Belief Degree Approach for Prioritization of Energy Sources: Case of Turkey

Abstract

Energy planning is difficult to model owing to its complex structure, with numerous decision makers, criteria, and scenarios. Fortunately, decisionmaking methods can be helpful for the sustainable development of energy, by the evaluation of different energy sources with regard to multiple aspects, for example, economic, environmental, political etc. In this study, a methodology based on a cumulative belief degree approach is proposed for the prioritization of energy sources. The approach enables the use of all types of evaluations, without the loss of any information. It also allows for incomplete expert evaluations which may occur in the energy sources prioritization problem. Turkey, like many countries, generates most of energy from fossil fuels, which are imported mostly from other countries. However, the enormous increase in oil prices, and an emerging energy demand, owing to economic growth and environmental issues, is forcing Turkey to improve its sustainable energy planning. Therefore, the proposed methodology is applied to the energy sources prioritization of Turkey. Results show that solar power and wind should be considered as the priori sources of energy in Turkey.

Towards next-generation energy planning decision-making: An expert-based framework for intelligent decision support

“…Environmental impact analysis environmental and ecological decision-making [84][85][86], life-cycle assessment [2, 87] C1.4. Energy evaluation and assessment investments [88][89][90][91], sustainability assessment of energy systems [38,[92][93][94][95], sources, technologies and options [12,13,15,28,35,39,94,[96][97][98], power expansion alternatives [99][100][101], plants [47,102], power generation scenarios [103,104] quantitative and qualitative factors. Based on [10], multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), analytic network process (ANP), preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations (PROMETHEE), elimination and choice expressing reality (ELECTRE), and fuzzy models were the most commonly used techniques for renewable and sustainable energy planning.…”

“…The involved stakeholders often express difficulties to provide precise assessments when evaluating alternatives according to criteria. This is further complicated in multiple stakeholders' environments due to the different levels of knowledge, resulting in biased decisions [4,15,35]. Fuzzy set theory was introduced by Zadeh in [36] as an effective instrument to facilitate decision-making situations in vague and ambiguous contexts.…”

Energy planning under uncertain decision-making environment: An evidential reasoning approach to prioritize renewable energy sources

“…For example, several experts were asked to assess different sources of energy with respect to the relevant criteria in Turkey. Based on the evaluation of the participants, the performance of "oil" option on the criterion "National economic benefits" can be modelled by the following distribution [10]:…”

An OWA Operator-Based Cumulative Belief Degrees Approach for Credit Rating

“…Kabak and Ruan showed that the risk can be dealt with a CBD approach that is appropriate for assessment of vague and linguistic‐based information. Similarly, Kabak et al . used it for identifying the risk levels for the energy policy evaluation problem in Turkey.…”

“…While Ruan et al . utilized an OWA operator‐based aggregation, Kabak et al . proposed to use the subjective weights determined by decision experts.…”