A crude reversal: The political economy of the United States crude oil export policy

Colgan, Jeff D.; Graaf, Thijs Van de

doi:10.1016/j.erss.2016.12.012

Cited by 15 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…However, things have changed in 2015. The significant Brent-WTI spread, the sharp drop in oil prices and a Congressional budget deal led to the U.S. policy shift on oil export [30]. On 18 December of this year, the forty-decades-old crude oil export ban was finally lifted.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Time-Dependent Lead-Lag Relationship Between WTI and Brent Crude Oil Spot Markets

Yang

Shao

et al. 2020

Front. Phys.

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Based on daily returns, we comprehensively characterize the lead-lag relationship between Brent and WTI crude oil spot markets from 1987 to 2017 with the non-parametric symmetric thermal optimal path (TOPS) method. The empirical results indicate that WTI spot price leads Brent spot price slightly, which provides support to the price leadership of WTI over Brent. However, the lead-lag relationship is volatile and sensitive to extreme events like geopolitical conflict and policy shift. Due to the concerns about future oil supply triggered by the two Gulf wars, both WTI and Brent experienced extreme uncertainty and co-moved closely during wartime. Notably, the TOPS method captures the structural break in the WTI-Brent price spread in 2011 which is influenced by the U.S. oil export ban and transportation bottleneck. After the lift of the ban, the two benchmark prices have reconnected. The lead-lag signals basically coincide with major influential changes in the oil markets, which suggests that the TOPS method provides a viable approach to reflecting the impact of extreme events on the crude oil prices motion.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Time-Dependent Lead-Lag Relationship Between WTI and Brent Crude Oil Spot Markets

Yang

Shao

et al. 2020

Front. Phys.

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“…In addition to the U.S. energy policy, the supply and demand situation and infrastructure issues also count for the WTI crude oil price and market efficiency [15,46,47]. With the hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques, oil production from shale region in U.S. rose dramatically and led to the shale boom, while inadequate transportation infrastructures restricted the U.S. crude supply to the refining centers.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In 1970s the United States government enacted prohibitions on the export of crude oil to handle concerns on possible energy shortage [15]. The ban restricted most crude oil exports from U.S. to other countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Crude Oil Market Efficiency Improve After the Lift of the U.S. Export Ban? Evidence From Time-Varying Hurst Exponent

Shao

2020

Front. Phys.

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On 18 December 2015, the 40-years old U.S. crude oil export ban was repealed. Since then U.S. crude and oil producers were allowed to reach the global market. In this paper, we study if the crude oil market efficiency increases after the lift of the export ban via the Centered Detrending Moving average Analysis (CDMA) and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA). We examine the time-varying market inefficiency from 2011 to 2020 with different rolling windows. The results indicate that WTI becomes inefficient after the lift in medium-term. Though in short and long-term, there is evidence for the improvement of the degree of market efficiency. Generally, the WTI market presents mixed efficiency behavior at different time horizons. In 1-year window, the degree of efficiency on Brent decreased while there isn't enough evidence to conclude that Brent market efficiency increased or decreased in medium and long term. In this sense, the lift of the ban might have significant impact on WTI but not on Brent.

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“…The "America first" path taken serves the interests of domestic shale producers who have developed a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. The fossil fuel industry formed a powerful interest group in the US lobbying for lifting the federal-level ban on crude export (Colgan and Van De Graaf, 2017;Crooks, 2017). Second, the neo-mercantilist and unilateralist policies pursued by Trump's administration have already damaged the liberal international order, and a considerable amount of time and effort will be necessary to rebuild and revive it.…”

Section: Trump's Election As Contingencymentioning

confidence: 99%

Trump’s “America first” energy policy, contingency and the reconfiguration of the global energy order

Guliyev

2020

Energy Policy

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The global energy system is in transition to a new energy order characterized by the emergence of the United States as a net oil exporter, the shale revolution and the gradual shift towards low-carbon sources and renewables. The shale boom in the US was a game changer, as was the election of Donald Trump as US president. Trump pushed an ambitious "America first" agenda aimed at transforming the US into a global energy superpower. The purpose of this article is two-fold: first, it outlines the key pillars of the emerging global energy order. Second, it underscores the role of contingent events, a factor neglected by some previous studies because of their reliance on what A.O.Hirschman (1970) termed "paradigmatic thinking". The recent transition in the international energy order is an outcome of two paramount, yet largely unanticipated events: the shale revolution in the US and Trump's neomercantilist and unilateralist economic policies. While contingencies are an inherent feature of social reality, the scenario approach can be a useful heuristic for dealing with uncertainties. The article concludes by discussing the implications of these developments for global energy governance.

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A crude reversal: The political economy of the United States crude oil export policy

Cited by 15 publications

References 10 publications

The Time-Dependent Lead-Lag Relationship Between WTI and Brent Crude Oil Spot Markets

The Time-Dependent Lead-Lag Relationship Between WTI and Brent Crude Oil Spot Markets

Does Crude Oil Market Efficiency Improve After the Lift of the U.S. Export Ban? Evidence From Time-Varying Hurst Exponent

Trump’s “America first” energy policy, contingency and the reconfiguration of the global energy order

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