A crowd movement model for pedestrian flow through bottlenecks

Kabalan, Bachar; Argoul, Pierre; Jebrane, Aissam; Cumunel, Gwendal; Erlicher, Silvano

doi:10.1007/s12356-016-0044-3

Cited by 21 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…We use a social force model ( 19 ) to describe the movement of each individual agent. The model was used previously to describe the movement of pedestrian in crowded areas ( 20 ). We model each agent as a sphere particle which is subjected to several forces.…”

Section: Mathematical Modeling Of Covid-19 Transmission Dynamics Imentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modeling Predicts That Strict Social Distancing Measures Would Be Needed to Shorten the Duration of Waves of COVID-19 Infections in Vietnam

Bouchnita¹,

Chekroun

Jebrane³

2021

Front. Public Health

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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China in 2019, has spread throughout the world and has since then been declared a pandemic. As a result, COVID-19 has caused a major threat to global public health. In this paper, we use mathematical modeling to analyze the reported data of COVID-19 cases in Vietnam and study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. To achieve this, two models are used to describe the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The first model belongs to the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) type and is used to compute the basic reproduction number. The second model adopts a multi-scale approach which explicitly integrates the movement of each individual. Numerical simulations are conducted to quantify the effects of social distancing measures on the spread of COVID-19 in urban areas of Vietnam. Both models show that the adoption of relaxed social distancing measures reduces the number of infected cases but does not shorten the duration of the epidemic waves. Whereas, more strict measures would lead to the containment of each epidemic wave in one and a half months.

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Section: Mathematical Modeling Of Covid-19 Transmission Dynamics Imentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modeling Predicts That Strict Social Distancing Measures Would Be Needed to Shorten the Duration of Waves of COVID-19 Infections in Vietnam

Bouchnita¹,

Chekroun

Jebrane³

2021

Front. Public Health

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“…We use a social force model [9] to describe the motion of each individual agent. The model was used previously to describe the movement of pedestrian in crowded areas [11]. We model each agent as a sphere particle which is subjected to several forces.…”

Section: Agent Displacementmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-scale model quantifies the impact of limited movement of the population and mandatory wearing of face masks in containing the COVID-19 epidemic in Morocco

Bouchnita¹,

Jebrane²

2020

Math. Model. Nat. Phenom.

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The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and caused a serious threat to global public health. In Morocco, the first confirmed COVID-19 case was reported on March 2, 2020. Since then, several non-pharmaceutical interventions were used to slow down the spread of the disease. In this work, we use a previously developed multi-scale model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics to quantify the effects of restricting population movement and wearing face masks on disease spread in Morocco. In this model, individuals are represented as agents that move, become infected, transmit the disease, develop symptoms, go into quarantine, die by the disease, or become immunized. We describe the movement of agents using a social force model and we consider both modes of direct and indirect transmission. We use the model to simulate the impact of restricting the movement of the population movement and mandating the wearing of masks on the spread of COVID-19. The model predicts that adopting these two measures would reduce the total number of cases by 64%. Furthermore, the relative incidence of indirect transmission increases when control measures are adopted.

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“…For normal conditions, the speed is chosen to be following a normal distribution with an average of 1.34 m.s −1 ( 5 km/h) and a standard deviation of 0.26 m.s − 1, τ i is a relaxation time, which specifies how long the pedestrian will take to recover his desired velocity after a contact or after a sudden change in their path. This parameter reflects the aggressiveness of the individual [36]. The social force f sco i describes the tendency of agents to avoid contacts and keep a desired distance d 0 between them in order to comply with social distancing measures [23].…”

Section: Agent Displacementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted April 7, 2020. Falloff length of socio-psychological force β 0.08 m Table 1: Default values for the parameters of the social force model taken from [36].…”

Section: (Which Was Not Certified By Peer Review)mentioning

confidence: 99%

A hybrid multi-scale model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics to assess the potential of non-pharmaceutical interventions

Bouchnita¹,

Jebrane²

2020

Preprint

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Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a novel coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019. It has caused a global outbreak which represents a major threat to global health. Public health resorted to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing and lockdown to slow down the spread of the pandemic. However, the effect of each of these measures remains hard to quantify. We design a multi-scale model that simulates the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We describe the motion of individual agents using a social force model. Each agent can be either susceptible, infected, quarantined, immunized or deceased. The model considers both mechanisms of direct and indirect transmission. We parameterize the model to reproduce the early dynamics of disease spread in Italy. We show that panic situations increase the risk of infection transmission in crowds despite social distancing measures. Next, we suggest that pre-symptomatic transmission could be a significant driver of the infection spread. Then, we show that the restricted movement of the individuals flattens the epidemic curve. Finally, model predictions suggest that measures stricter than social distancing and lockdown were used to control the epidemic in Wuhan, China. : medRxiv preprint human-to-human transmission. The rest of the interventions like the disinfection of public areas aim to reduce the chances of indirect transmission. While all of these measures slow down the propagation of the epidemic [7], the impact of each of these NPIs on the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 remains hard to quantify.Mathematical modelling can be used to gain a deeper understanding of the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Compartmental models provide a theoretical framework to study disease transmission in a population of individuals [8]. These compartmental models can be implemented using a wide range of modelling methods. The simplest form of compartmental models uses ordinary differential equations to describe population dynamics during an epidemic. Susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models are one of the most commonly used compartmental models [9]. They describe the evolution of the number of infected individuals in a closed population. A recently published SIR model was used to quantify the effect of quarantine on the spread of COVID-19 [10]. Another class of widely used models consider four population classes: susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) models [11]. These models are most suitable to describe the spread of diseases with a long incubation period, which is the case of the COVID-19 outbreak. In this context, an SEIR was recently developed and used to conduct a data-driven analysis of COVID-19 spread [12]. Other recent studies used SEIR models to estimate the basic reproduction number of this pandemic [13,14]. A more complex compartmental study was used to evaluate the capacity of the healthcare system in responding to . The impact of the control measures that were adopted to mitigate the COVID-19 o...

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A crowd movement model for pedestrian flow through bottlenecks

Cited by 21 publications

References 26 publications

Mathematical Modeling Predicts That Strict Social Distancing Measures Would Be Needed to Shorten the Duration of Waves of COVID-19 Infections in Vietnam

Mathematical Modeling Predicts That Strict Social Distancing Measures Would Be Needed to Shorten the Duration of Waves of COVID-19 Infections in Vietnam

A multi-scale model quantifies the impact of limited movement of the population and mandatory wearing of face masks in containing the COVID-19 epidemic in Morocco

A hybrid multi-scale model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics to assess the potential of non-pharmaceutical interventions

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