A cross‐scale framework to support a mechanistic understanding and modelling of marine climate‐driven species redistribution, from individuals to communities

Abstract

Climate‐driven species redistribution is pervasive and accelerating, yet the complex mechanisms at play remain poorly understood. The implications of large‐scale species redistribution for natural systems and human societies have resulted in a large number of studies exploring the effects on individual species and ecological communities worldwide. Whilst many studies have investigated discrete components of species redistribution, the integration required for a more complete mechanistic understanding is lacking. In this paper, we provide a framework for synthesising approaches to more robustly understand and predict marine species redistributions. We conceptualise the stages and processes involved in climate‐driven species redistribution at increasing levels of biological organisation, and synthesize the laboratory, field and modelling approaches used to study redistribution related processes at individual, population and community levels. We then summarise links between scales of biological organisation and methodological approaches in a hierarchical framework that represents an integrated mechanistic assessment of climate‐driven species redistributions. In a rapidly expanding field of research, this framework provides direction for: 1) guiding future research, 2) highlighting key knowledge gaps, 3) fostering data exchange and collaboration between disciplines and 4) improving shared capacity to predict and therefore, inform the proactive management of climate impacts on natural systems.

Contrasting patterns in the occurrence and biomass centers of gravity among fish and macroinvertebrates in a continental shelf ecosystem

“…Environmental factors dominate in the modeling of species distribution and have overshadowed other effects, such as biotic interactions, and specific biological characteristics, like phenotypic plasticity or locomotor performance (Twiname et al, 2020; Zhang et al, 2018). Besides the environmental factors in the SDM framework, we investigated also possible relationships between fish body size and depth of occurrence.…”

Species on the move around the Australian coastline: A continental‐scale review of climate‐driven species redistribution in marine systems

“…Many different general approaches and data sets are used to detect and subsequently verify range shifts (Booth et al, 2011; Twiname et al, 2020). Given the variability and sometimes opportunistic degree to which data have been collected, there has been little standardization across studies or within general approaches undertaken.…”

“…Our current understanding of range shifts globally is biased towards more charismatic species, and the most developed regions of the Northern Hemisphere (Lenoir et al, 2020). Detailed explorations of species range shifts in the Southern Hemisphere are under‐represented, and as such are in part limiting our potential to generate the process‐based understanding needed for stronger predictive capacity of future shifts in species distributions (Twiname et al, 2020). The implications of widespread changes in species distributions are substantial for coupled‐socioecological systems through, for example, alterations to fishing and tourism opportunities (Champion et al, 2019), novel threats to aquaculture (e.g.…”

Potential changes in the connectivity of marine protected areas driven by extreme ocean warming

“…Shifts in the timing and output of reproduction, premature reef-seeking larval behaviour, increase in self-recruitment and reduction in the magnitude of demographic connectivity are also expected to occur 27 , 28 . Another significant consequence of ocean warming is the redistribution of species caused by increased colonization of warm-adapted species in subtropical sites 29 , 30 . Alterations in biological behaviour are especially evident in transition zones, where both tropical and temperate species overlap and changes in SST are more pronounced 8 .…”