A Cross-Model Comparison of Global Long-Term Technology Diffusion Under a 2°c Climate Change Control Target

Zwaan, Bob van der; Rösler, H.; Kober, Tom; Aboumahboub, Tino; Calvin, Katherine; Gernaat, David; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David

doi:10.1142/s2010007813400137

Cited by 53 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 30 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…McCollum et al, 2013;Tavoni et al, 2013;Kober et al, 2014). In this section we highlight one relevant techno-economic aspect, as was done in van der Zwaan et al (2013b). Fig.…”

Section: Low-carbon Electricity Technology Investmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-model study of energy supply investments in Latin America under climate control policy

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…McCollum et al, 2013;Tavoni et al, 2013;Kober et al, 2014). In this section we highlight one relevant techno-economic aspect, as was done in van der Zwaan et al (2013b). Fig.…”

Section: Low-carbon Electricity Technology Investmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-model study of energy supply investments in Latin America under climate control policy

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Historically observed rates of change can be important reference points for assessing the difficulty associated with future rates of change -providing possibly also insights in real world factors not covered in the models. In fact, several studies have already tried to compare model results and historical data using different indicators (Kramer and Haigh, 2009;Loftus et al, 2014;Riahi et al, 2015;Tavoni and van der Zwaan, 2009;van der Zwaan et al, 2013;Van Vuuren and Stehfest, 2013;Wilson et al, 2012). In these studies different methods and data sets have been used to confront existing scenarios with historical evidence, meaning that their results and conclusions cannot be easily compared.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios with historically observed rates of change

Sluisveld

Harmsen

Bauer

et al. 2015

Global Environmental Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A B S T R A C TThis paper systematically compares modeled rates of change provided by global integrated assessment models aiming for the 2 C objective to historically observed rates of change. Such a comparison can provide insights into the difficulty of achieving such stringent climate stabilization scenarios. The analysis focuses specifically on the rates of change for technology expansion and diffusion, emissions and energy supply investments. The associated indicators vary in terms of system focus (technology-specific or energy system wide), temporal scale (timescale or lifetime), spatial scale (regional or global) and normalization (accounting for entire system growth or not). Although none of the indicators provide conclusive insights as to the achievability of scenarios, this study finds that indicators that look into absolute change remain within the range of historical growth frontiers for the next decade, but increase to unprecedented levels before mid-century. Indicators that take into account or normalize for overall system growth find future change to be broadly within historical ranges. This is particularly the case for monetary-based normalization metrics like GDP compared to energy-based normalization metrics like primary energy. By applying a diverse set of indicators alternative, complementary insights into how scenarios compare with historical observations are acquired but they do not provide further insights on the possibility of achieving rates of change that are beyond current day practice.

show abstract

“…CO 2 storage options); et cetera (see also van der Zwaan et al, 2013b). For detailed model descriptions we refer to publications by their respective modeling teams: EPPA (Paltsev et al, 2005); GCAM Phoenix (Sue Wing et al, 2011); POLES (Criqui et al, in press;Kitous et al, 2010); TIAM-ECN van der Zwaan et al, 2013a) and TIAM-WORLD (Loulou, 2008;Loulou and Labriet, 2008).…”

Section: Models and Scenario Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We examine which energy options should be reduced, as well as how fast, and which others need to be expanded, and at what scale, in a similar way as has recently been done on the global scale in e.g. Wilson et al (2012), Riahi et al (2013) and van der Zwaan et al (2013b). We do not assess what the direct implementation costs would be of the technological transformation associated with climate change mitigation action in Latin America, as was done in some previous studies (see e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Energy Technology Roll-Out for Climate Change Mitigation: A Multi-Model Study for Latin America van der Zwaan, B.; Kober, T.; Calderon, S. ; Clarke, L.; Daenzer, K. ; Kitous, A.; Labriet, M. ; Lucena, A.F.P.; Octaviano, C.; Di Sbroiavacca, N. Published in: Energy Economics DOI:10.1016/j.eneco. 2015.11.019 Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): van der Zwaan, B., Kober, T., Calderon, S., Clarke, L., Daenzer, K., Kitous, A., ... Di Sbroiavacca, N. (2016 General rightsIt is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), other than for strictly personal, individual use, unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Disclaimer/Complaints regulationsIf you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint, the Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please Ask the Library: http://uba.uva.nl/en/contact, or a letter to: Library of the University of Amsterdam, Secretariat, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible. In this paper we investigate opportunities for energy technology deployment under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax and CO 2 abatement scenarios until 2050 we analyze what resources and technologies, notably for electricity generation, could be cost-optimal in the energy sector to significantly reduce CO 2 emissions in the region. By way of sensitivity test we perform a cross-model comparison study and inspect whether robust conclusions can be drawn across results from different models as well as different types of models (general versus partial equilibrium). Given the abundance of biomass resources in Latin America, they play a large role in energy supply in all scenarios we inspect. This is especially true for stringent climate policy scenarios, for instance because the use of biomass in power plants in combination with CCS can yield negative CO 2 emissions. We find that hydropower, which today contributes about 800 TWh to overall power production in Latin America, could be significantly expanded to meet the climate policies we investigate, typically by about 50%, but potentially by as much as 75%. According to all models, electricity generation increases exponentially with a two-to three-fold expansion between 2010 and 2050. We find that in our climate policy scenarios renewable energy overall expands typically at double-digit growth rates annually, but there is substantial spread in model results for specific options such as wind and solar power: the climate policies that we simulate raise wind power in 2050 on average to half the production level that hydropower provides today, while they raise solar power to either a substantially higher or a much lower level than hydropower supplies at present, ...

show abstract

A Cross-Model Comparison of Global Long-Term Technology Diffusion Under a 2°c Climate Change Control Target

Cited by 53 publications

References 30 publications

A multi-model study of energy supply investments in Latin America under climate control policy

A multi-model study of energy supply investments in Latin America under climate control policy

Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios with historically observed rates of change

Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About