A crop and cultivar-specific approach to assess future winter chill risk for fruit and nut trees

Darbyshire, Rebecca; Measham, Penelope; Goodwin, Ian

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1692-3

Cited by 23 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 47 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Specifically, chilling affects emergence from endodormancy, transition to ecodormancy, and the resumption of growth in the spring [1]. While chill accumulation is an important part of crop suitability to a region, commercial varieties have a broad range of chilling requirements that make them suitable for many different regions [2][3][4]. Currently, insufficient chill accumulation is most important in subtropical tree-fruit growing regions such as Israel, South Africa, Spain, and California where varietal selection can be often based largely on chill requirements [5][6][7][8][9][10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Currently, insufficient chill accumulation is most important in subtropical tree-fruit growing regions such as Israel, South Africa, Spain, and California where varietal selection can be often based largely on chill requirements [5][6][7][8][9][10]. While subtropical areas have been the focus for problems related to insufficient chilling requirements, decreased winter chill accumulations related to a warming climate mean that potentially many more regions will face this issue in the near future [2,3,[6][7][8][11][12][13][14][15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These include the Chilling Hours Model [22], the Utah Model [23] and the Dynamic Model [24,25] The Dynamic Model takes into account the positive effect of cool temperatures, the negative effect of high temperatures, the positive effect of moderate temperatures, the effect of moderate temperatures alternating with chilling temperatures, and the time inhomogeneity of chilling negation. The Dynamic Model has been reported to better capture the dynamic nature of the chilling process as compared with other models [2,12,26,27], work for a variety of crops and cultivars [7,28,29], and for a variety of climatic regimes [12,30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Climate change and chill accumulation: implications for tree fruit production in cold-winter regions

Noorazar

Kalcsits

Jones

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Winter chill accumulation is critical for the productivity and profitability of perennial tree fruit production systems. Several studies have quantified the impacts of global warming on risks of insufficient chill accumulation in the warmer tree fruit and nut production regions of the United States (US), such as the Southeast and California, where these risks are currently prevalent. In this work, we focus on the Pacific Northwest US – the largest production area in the US for apples, pears and cherries – and quantify the potential risk of insufficient chill accumulation. Our results highlight large spatial variations in response within the PNW, with northern areas projected to have reduced risks and southern areas projected to have increased risks. In the southern areas, rather than chill accumulation in and of itself, it is the combination of reduced and delayed chill accumulation with likely advancement in spring phenology that lead to production risks. In spite of future reductions to chill accumulation, risks of insufficient chill accumulation seem limited for apple even with advancement of spring phenology. Under the extreme “no climate policy” RCP 8.5 climate projections, the production risks are significant for early blooming crops (e.g. cherries) and varieties with relatively high chill portions requirements (e.g. Sam cherries), necessitating planning for management strategies such as frost protection and chemical management of budbreak to address potential risks which have not historically been a concern in the region. Under less extreme warming outcomes, the PNW tree fruit production systems are likely to remain resilient. Given that the convergence of the fulfillment of chilling requirements and environmental conditions promoting budbreak is where potential risk to perennial tree fruit production exists, future work should focus on understanding, modelling and projecting responses within this convergence space. Additionally, given significant spatial differences across a relatively small geographic range, it is also critical to understand and model these dynamics at a local landscape resolution for regions such as the PNW that faced limited risk historically, but could be exposed to new risks under a warming climate.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Climate change and chill accumulation: implications for tree fruit production in cold-winter regions

Noorazar

Kalcsits

Jones

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Stochastic weather scenarios are less susceptible to inter-annual variation, and they provide an illustration of the gradual shift in the chances of climatic risk events that is brought about by climatic change. A number of studies have identified comparable trends in chill availability for California (Luedeling et al 2009b), Chile (Fernandez et al 2020a), Germany (Chmielewski et al 2012), Australia (Darbyshire et al 2016) and Tunisia (Benmoussa et al 2018). In our previous study (Luedeling et al 2009a), we identified a chill decline by 9.5 CH per year at Al 'Ayn (from the season 1983/84 to 2007/08).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 55%

Revisiting climate change effects on winter chill in mountain oases of northern Oman

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

For centuries, traditional high-altitude oases in Oman have depended on the cultivation of deciduous fruit trees. This study explores the effects of climate change on winter chill (estimated as Chilling Hours—CH and Chill Portions—CP), a prerequisite to overcoming dormancy and initiating flowering, in three Omani oases. The results are compared with findings from an earlier study which reported a decrease in the numbers of CH in high-elevation oases by an average of 1.2–9.5 CH year−1 between 1983 and 2008. Location-specific weather data were obtained by merging 15 years of in situ recordings with 28 years of observations from an official weather station near the top of the investigated watershed. Between 1991 and 2018, scenarios of the past few decades show chill reductions by 75, 35 and 18% when estimated in CP at the oases of Masayrat ar Ruwajah (1030 m a.s.l.), Qasha’ (1640 m a.s.l.), and Al ‘Ayn (1900 m a.s.l.), respectively. Over the course of the twenty-first century, the lowest-elevation oasis at Masayrat ar Ruwajah is projected to lose virtually all winter chill, whereas, despite significant chill losses, conditions are expected to remain viable for some of the currently grown species in the higher-elevation oases. These projected changes will compromise the cultivation of temperate fruit trees in the near future, affecting the sustainability of Omani oases. Our methods support results from earlier work performed at these locations and provide an updated procedure for assessing climate change effects on temperature-dependent systems.

show abstract

“…During winters without an adequate period of chilling, spring bloom is unreliable and delayed. Fruit set and quality are also adversely affected (Darbyshire, Measham, and Goodwin 2016). Winter chilling is also a factor for crops such as winter wheat (Chouard 1960).…”

Section: Winter Chill Unitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Indicators for Agriculture

Walsh¹,

Backlund

Buja

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Climate Indicators for Agriculture report presents 20 indicators of climate change, carefully selected across multiple agricultural production types and food system elements in the United States. Together, they represent an overall view of how climate change is influencing U.S. agriculture and food systems. Individually, they provide useful information to support management decisions for a variety of crop and livestock production systems. The report includes multiple categories of indicators, including physical indicators (e.g., temperature, precipitation), crop and livestock (e.g., animal heat stress), biological indicators (e.g., pests), phenological indicators (e.g. seasonality), and socioeconomic indicators (e.g., total factor productivity).

show abstract

A crop and cultivar-specific approach to assess future winter chill risk for fruit and nut trees

Cited by 23 publications

References 47 publications

Climate change and chill accumulation: implications for tree fruit production in cold-winter regions

Climate change and chill accumulation: implications for tree fruit production in cold-winter regions

Revisiting climate change effects on winter chill in mountain oases of northern Oman

Climate Indicators for Agriculture

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About