A criminalidade no Estado de Pernambuco: uma análise espacial dos determinantes das ocorrências de homicídios e roubos

Abstract

Pernambuco tem apresentado uma evolução nos Crimes Violentos Letais Intencionais (CVLI) e Crimes Violentos contra o Patrimônio (CVP), a partir de meados de 2016. Diante disso, este trabalho teve como objetivo identificar os componentes socioeconômicos e geográficos determinantes para o crescimento da criminalidade nos municípios do território estadual. Para isto, foram utilizadas a Análise Exploratório de Dados Espaciais (AEDE) e modelos econométricos com componentes espaciais. Os resultados do Índice de Moran, foram positivos e significativos, indicando dependência espacial na ocorrência de homicídios e roubos na Região Metropolita do Recife (RMR), Agreste e Sertão, através do levantamento de clusters. Os modelos espaciais estimados apontaram que há um efeito de transbordamento e repercussão da criminalidade entre os municípios e seus vizinhos.

Spatial Modeling for Homicide Rates Estimation in Pernambuco State-Brazil

“…It was observed that high population concentration is directly related to the occurrences of homicides in the state of Pernambuco. This conclusion was corroborated with the work from [14], who affirmed that homicides are associated with most populous cities [14]. Furthermore, according to [14], locations with greater economic prosperity, in addition to concentrated a high number of inhabitants, also have an ideal environment for violence growth.…”

“…This conclusion was corroborated with the work from [14], who affirmed that homicides are associated with most populous cities [14]. Furthermore, according to [14], locations with greater economic prosperity, in addition to concentrated a high number of inhabitants, also have an ideal environment for violence growth. Other aspects that can explain the high homicide rates are for instance, a higher proportion of men aged between 18 and 24 years old in relation to the total population [59], the level of income, drug trafficking [60], school lag, among others.…”

“…This study is justified on the grounds of the absence of up-to-date spatial analyzes of homicides in the state of Pernambuco. The relevance of the theme can be observed throughout recurrent studies in Brazil [14,21] and in other countries [3,16].…”

“…In this same study, the authors also concluded that the phenomenon of crime is not randomly distributed in space. Souza Sá [14] found that there is positive spatial autocorrelation between homicide rates for the year 2016 in Pernambuco, and spatial clusters have also been identified in some regions in the state.…”

“…In this regard, the use of spatial analysis in crime studies contributes to a better understanding of the phenomenon and the development of action plans to prevent crime. Crime mapping using the Geographic Information System (GIS) and software with implementations of spatial analysis and methods of exploratory analysis of spatial data is recurrent in the contemporary world [10][11][12][13][14][15], and has been making new breakthroughs in recent years as a tool to broaden the understanding of crime patterns. In addition to the mapping approach, spatial statistics are widely employed for the identification of crime concentration and dispersion, as well as its correlation with socioeconomic, demographic, and urban infrastructure indicators.…”