A crash-prediction model for multilane roads

Caliendo, Ciro; Guida, Maurizio; Parisi, Alessandra

doi:10.1016/j.aap.2006.10.012

Cited by 333 publications

(172 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…However, some authors seem to suggest that the Poisson regression and the NB models possess most of the desirable statistical properties in describing vehicle accident events. The Poisson and NB regression models have been widely used to analyze count data where the dependent variable is discrete and defined for non-negative integers corresponding to the number of events occurring in a given intervals (Miaou and Lum, 1993;Noland and Oh, 2004;Chang, 2005;Caliendo et al, 2007;Arenas et al, 2009). In light of these findings, negative binomial models were applied in this study.…”

Section: Models To Evaluate the Influence Of Certain Variables On Roamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Other studies have been carried out in recent years to establish the relationships between accidents and the effect of different vehicle mix (Tay, 2003;Hiselius, 2004;Wong et al, 2007;Haleem, 2011, Pei et al, 2011), the frequency of intersections (Ivan and O'Mara, 1997), environmental factors (Chang, 2005;Caliendo et al, 2007;Fridstrøm et al, 1995;Shankar et al, 1995), geometric infrastructure characteristics (Chang, 2005;Hauer et al, 2004), number of lanes (Noland and Oh, 2004;Chang, 2005;Milton and Mannering, 1998), and speed limits (Fridstrøm et al, 1995;Ossiander and Cummings, 2002;Wong et al, 2005).…”

Section: Models To Evaluate the Influence Of Certain Variables On Roamentioning

confidence: 99%

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The influence of economic incentives linked to road safety indicators on accidents: The case of toll concessions in Spain

Rangel

Vassallo

Herraiz

2013

Accident Analysis & Prevention

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The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether the incentives incorporated in toll highway concession contracts in order to encourage private operators to adopt measures to reduce accidents are actually effective at improving safety. To this end, we implemented negative binomial regression models using information about highway characteristics and accident data from toll highway concessions in Spain from 2007 to 2009. Our results show that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not managed by the contractor, such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT), the percentage of heavy vehicles on the highway, number of lanes, number of intersections and average speed; the implementation of these incentives has a positive influence on the reduction of accidents and injuries. Consequently, this measure seems to be an effective way of improving safety performance in road networks.

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Section: Models To Evaluate the Influence Of Certain Variables On Roamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Models To Evaluate the Influence Of Certain Variables On Roamentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of economic incentives linked to road safety indicators on accidents: The case of toll concessions in Spain

Rangel

Vassallo

Herraiz

2013

Accident Analysis & Prevention

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“…Opposite results have been found for road condition. Adverse conditions, such as rain or wet surface, have been found to raise the probability of crash severity and crash risk (Caliendo et al, 2007;Majdzadeh et al, 2008;Yau, 2004). However, other studies have found that adverse conditions have a preventive effect on the incidence of injury (Zhang et al, 2000), and good road conditions could increase the probability of a fatal crash (De Lapparent, 2006;Quddus et al, 2002).…”

Section: Environmental Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These studies did not take into account the level of risk exposure (accidents per kilometer). Only Caliendo et al (2007) included in their study, focused on accidents on freeways, the traffic flow (average daily traffic, ADT). Unfortunately, as these authors point out, it is difficult to obtain this information and there is little research to consider.…”

Section: Environmental Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling offenses among motorcyclists involved in crashes in Spain

Pérez-Fuster

Rodrigo

Ballestar

et al. 2013

Accident Analysis & Prevention

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In relative terms, Spanish motorcyclists are more likely to be involved in crashes than other drivers and this tendency is constantly increasing. The objective of this study is to identify the factors that are related to being an offender in motorcycle accidents. A binary logit model is used to differentiate between offender and non-offender motorcyclists. A motorcyclist was considered to be offender when s/he had committed at least one traffic offense at the moment previous to the crash. The analysis is based that inexperienced, older females, not using helmets, absent-minded and non-fatigued riders are more likely to be offenders. Moreover, riding during the night, on weekends, for leisure purposes and along roads in perfect condition, mainly on curves, predict offenses among motorcyclists. The findings of this study are expected to be useful in developing traffic policy decisions in order to improve motorcyclist safety.

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“…The analysis was based on generalized linear models. The results showed that crash rate increases with increasing traffic flow expressed both as ADT and HV [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%