A cost-effectiveness analysis of water security and water quality: impacts of climate and land-use change on the River Thames system

Whitehead, Paul; Crossman, Jill; Balana, Bedru; Bishop, Kevin; Comber, Sean; Jin, Li; Skuras, Dimitris; Wade, Andrew J.; Bowes, Michael J.; Read, Daniel S.

doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0413

Cited by 55 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…For each land use, a phosphorus daily application rate was defined, based on fertiliser usage and number of grazing animals, using statistics from the Department for Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and literature values (Johnes and Butterfield, 2003). A detailed description of the INCA-P parameterisation and model application to the River Thames catchment is provided in Crossman et al (2013) and Whitehead et al (2013). The model outputs include several hydrological and water quality variables.…”

Section: Incamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model outputs include several hydrological and water quality variables. In this study, we used the model developed and calibrated by in Crossman et al (2013) and Whitehead et al (2013). The model parameters were slightly adjusted in order to reproduce accurately more recent total phosphorus concentration values measured as part of the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology's Thames Initiative Research Platform (Bowes et al, 2012).…”

Section: Incamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The future land use scenario and mitigations strategy (iii) describes a situation where the agricultural land expands but optimal phosphorus removal mitigation strategies have also taken place, based on a combined reduction of fertiliser and phosphorus removal from wastewater. This strategy was found to be the most effective for phosphorus control by Crossman et al (2013) and Whitehead et al (2013). These scenarios were taken into account by modifying the INCA model parameters.…”

Section: Land Use/land Management Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Specifically, for the River Thames it was found that an increase in the agricultural fraction of the catchment and runoff is likely to trigger an increase in phosphorus due to diffuse sources Whitehead et al, 2013). On the other hand, decreasing runoff and increased abstractions will reduce river flows and reduce dilution of effluents from the point sources such as sewage treatment works (Bowes et al, 2008).…”

Section: Impacts On Phosphorus Concentrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)

Bussi

Whitehead

Bowes

et al. 2016

Science of The Total Environment

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Article (refereed) -postprintBussi, Gianbattista; Whitehead, Paul G.; Bowes, Michael J.; Read, Daniel S.; Prudhomme, Christel; Dadson, Simon J. 2016. Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK).Contact CEH NORA team at noraceh@ceh.ac.ukThe NERC and CEH trademarks and logos ('the Trademarks') are registered trademarks of NERC in the UK and other countries, and may not be used without the prior written consent of the Trademark owner. AbstractPotential increases of phytoplankton concentrations in river systems due to global warming and changing climate could pose a serious threat to the anthropogenic use of surface waters. Nevertheless, the extent of the effect of climatic alterations on phytoplankton concentrations in river systems has not yet been analysed in detail. In this study, we assess the impact of a change in precipitation and temperature on river phytoplankton concentration by means of a physically-based model. A scenarioneutral methodology has been employed to evaluate the effects of climate alterations on flow, phosphorus concentration and phytoplankton concentration of the River Thames (southern England).In particular, five groups of phytoplankton are considered, representing a range of size classes and pigment phenotypes, under three different land-use/land-management scenarios to assess their impact on phytoplankton population levels. The model results are evaluated within the framework of future climate projections, using the UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) for the 2030s. The results of the model demonstrate that an increase in average phytoplankton concentration due to climate change is highly likely to occur, with the magnitude varying depending on the location along the River Thames. Cyanobacteria show significant increases under future climate change and land use change. An expansion of intensive agriculture accentuates the growth in phytoplankton, especially in the upper reaches of the River Thames. However, an optimal phosphorus removal mitigation strategy, which combines reduction of fertiliser application and phosphorus removal from wastewater, can help to reduce this increase in phytoplankton concentration, and in some cases, compensate for the effect of rising temperature.

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Section: Incamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Incamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Land Use/land Management Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Impacts On Phosphorus Concentrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)

Bussi

Whitehead

Bowes

et al. 2016

Science of The Total Environment

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“…They can cause significant financial loses to the water industry, due to filter blockages at water abstraction points and toxin, taint and odour problems produced by cyanobacterial communities, and can greatly affect the leisure and tourism industry (Dodds et al, 2009;Pretty et al, 2003;Whitehead et al, 2013). It is vital that the controls and causes of riverine phytoplankton blooms are identified and understood, so that effective measures can be adopted to reduce the risk of severe and damaging blooms in the future, particularly because they are predicted to increase in magnitude under future climate change scenarios (Johnson et al, 2009;Whitehead et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying multiple stressor controls on phytoplankton dynamics in the River Thames (UK) using high-frequency water quality data

Bowes

Loewenthal

Read

et al. 2016

Science of The Total Environment

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Contact CEH NORA team at noraceh@ceh.ac.ukThe NERC and CEH trademarks and logos ('the Trademarks') are registered trademarks of NERC in the UK and other countries, and may not be used without the prior written consent of the Trademark owner. AbstractRiver phytoplankton blooms can pose a serious risk to water quality and the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Developing a greater understanding of the physical and chemical controls on the timing, magnitude and duration of blooms is essential for the effective management of phytoplankton development. Five years of weekly water quality monitoring data along the River Thames, southernEngland were combined with hourly chlorophyll concentration (a proxy for phytoplankton biomass), flow, temperature and daily sunlight data from the mid-Thames. Weekly chlorophyll data was of insufficient temporal resolution to identify the causes of short term variations in phytoplankton biomass. However, hourly chlorophyll data enabled identification of thresholds in water temperature (between 9 and 19 o C) and flow (less than 30 m 3 s -1 ) that explained the development of phytoplankton populations. Analysis showed that periods of high phytoplankton biomass and growth rate only occurred when these flow and temperature conditions were within these thresholds, and coincided with periods of long sunshine duration, indicating multiple stressor controls. Nutrient concentrations appeared to have no impact on the timing or magnitude of phytoplankton bloom development, but severe depletion of dissolved phosphorus and silicon during periods of high phytoplankton biomass may have contributed to some bloom collapses through nutrient limitation. This study indicates that for nutrient enriched rivers such as the Thames, manipulating residence time (through removing impoundments) and light / temperature (by increasing riparian tree shading) may offer more realistic solutions than reducing phosphorus concentrations for controlling excessive phytoplankton biomass.

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Risk‐based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

Borgomeo

Hall

Fung

et al. 2014

Water Resources Research

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We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate-related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand-side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply-side and demand-side management strategies can be compared based on how costeffective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.

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A cost-effectiveness analysis of water security and water quality: impacts of climate and land-use change on the River Thames system

Cited by 55 publications

References 32 publications

Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)

Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)

Identifying multiple stressor controls on phytoplankton dynamics in the River Thames (UK) using high-frequency water quality data

Risk‐based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

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