A connection from Arctic stratospheric ozone to El Niño-Southern oscillation

Xie, Fei; Li, Jianping; Tian, Wenshou; Fu, Qiang; Jin, Fei‐Fei; Hu, Yongyun; Zhang, Jiankai; Wang, Wuke; Sun, Cheng; Feng, Juan; Yang, Yun; Ding, Ruiqiang

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124026

Cited by 90 publications

(110 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…The statistical significance of the correlation between two autocorrelated time series was calculated using the two‐tailed Student's t test and the effective number ( N eff ) of degrees of freedom (Bretherton et al, ). For this study, N eff was determined by the following approximation (e.g., Li et al, ; Li et al, ; Xie et al, , ):

\frac{1}{N^{eff}} \approx \frac{1}{N} + \frac{2}{N} \sum_{j = 1}^{N} \frac{N - j}{N} ρ_{XX} ((), j) ρ_{YY} ((), j),

where N is the sample size and ρ XX and ρ YY are the autocorrelations of two sampled time series, X and Y , respectively, at time lag j .…”

Section: Data Indices and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐Term Trend of the Tropical Pacific Trade Winds Under Global Warming and Its Causes

Chen

Liu

et al. 2019

JGR Oceans

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The recent intensification of trade winds over the tropical Pacific is the strongest ever observed in the past hundred years. This strengthening trend is of great interest in recent research, but the causes are still unclear. Using two relatively long‐term surface wind data sets, the present research shows that there is an overall strengthening trend of the trades in the western equatorial Pacific and an overall weakening trend in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This long‐term trend pattern can be primarily attributed to the cold tongue mode (CTM) rather than to the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), El Niño Modoki, or Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The CTM, the second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, represents a strong long‐term trend of tropical Pacific background state under global warming. According to the Gill‐Matsuno theory, the easterly winds over the western equatorial Pacific are induced by the equatorial Pacific cooling and warming SSTA associated with the CTM, while the westerly winds over the eastern equatorial Pacific is primarily due to the eastern equatorial Pacific cooling SSTA associated with the CTM. Ultimately, an alternative explanation of past and future changes of the trades is expected to lead to improved understanding of the global climatic impacts of the enhanced trades in tropical Pacific under global warming.

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\frac{1}{N^{eff}} \approx \frac{1}{N} + \frac{2}{N} \sum_{j = 1}^{N} \frac{N - j}{N} ρ_{XX} ((), j) ρ_{YY} ((), j),

where N is the sample size and ρ XX and ρ YY are the autocorrelations of two sampled time series, X and Y , respectively, at time lag j .…”

Section: Data Indices and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐Term Trend of the Tropical Pacific Trade Winds Under Global Warming and Its Causes

Chen

Liu

et al. 2019

JGR Oceans

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“…Kirchner and Peters 2003;Peters et al 2015) compared to zonally symmetric ozone variations. In many long-term General Circulation Model simulations, a prescribed time series of zonal mean ozone is employed (Cagnazzo et al 2006;Cionni et al 2011;Szopa et al 2013;Gonzalez et al 2014;Xie et al 2016Xie et al , 2017 and the ZAO heating effects, which have an important contribution to chemical-radiative-dynamical feedbacks (e.g. Sassi et al 2005;Nathan and Cordero 2007;Gabriel et al 2007Gabriel et al , 2013McCormack et al 2011;Peters et al 2015), are not properly considered.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Zonally asymmetric trends of winter total column ozone in the northern middle latitudes

et al. 2018

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Using various satellite-based observations, a linear ozone transport model (LOTM), a chemistry-climate model (WACCM3) and an offline chemical transport model (SLIMCAT), zonally asymmetric trends of the total column ozone (TCO) in the northern middle latitudes during winter for the period 1979-2015 are analyzed and factors responsible for the trends are diagnosed. The results reveal that there are significant negative TCO trends over the North Pacific and positive TCO trends over the northwestern North America. The zonally asymmetric TCO trends are mainly contributed by the trends in partial column ozone in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) which are closely related to the long-term changes of geopotential height in the troposphere. Furthermore, the trends of geopontential height in the UTLS are mainly modulated by pattern changes in the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Cold Ocean-Warm Land (COWL) and the North Pacific (NP) index. Accordingly, the zonally asymmetric TCO trends can be largely reconstructed by the trends of the above three teleconnection patterns. Sea surface temperature (SST) changes over the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean can also exert a significant contribution to the zonally asymmetric TCO trends through their influence on the COWL and NP patterns. In addition, chemical ozone loss partially offsets the positive trends in zonal TCO anomalies over Central Siberia and enhances the positive TCO trends over northwestern North America. However, the contribution of chemical processes to the zonally asymmetric TCO trends is relatively smaller than that of dynamical transport effects. Interpreting the zonally asymmetric TCO trends and their responsible factors would be helpful for accurately predicting the stratospheric ozone return date in the northern middle latitudes.

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“…It not only further extend the implication of Xie et al . () that ASO anomalies affect tropical climate, but also improve the understanding of the characteristic of tropical rainfall variations related to ASO changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Based on observational analyses and transient simulations, Xie et al . () recently found that the ASO anomalies possibly affect ENSO events. Based on this study, there is a possibility that the ASO anomalies can affect tropical rainfall variations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Delayed effect of Arctic stratospheric ozone on tropical rainfall

Xie

Zhang

Sang

et al. 2017

Atmospheric Science Letters

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The tropical precipitation has a wide effect on the tropical economics and social life. Many studies made efforts to improve the tropical precipitation forecast using tropical climate factors. This study, based on observations, found that Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) could exert a significant effect on the tropical precipitation, i.e. there is more (less) rainfall over the eastern Pacific and less (more) precipitation over the western Pacific when the ASO anomalies are lower (larger) than normal. It is because a decrease (increase) in ASO could affect El Niño (La Niña) events and lead to a weakened (enhanced) Walker circulation. Time-slice experiments confirmed that the ASO anomalies can force El Niño-Southern Oscillation-like anomalies of tropical sea surface temperature and subsequent tropical precipitation anomalies. In addition, the ASO variations could also change the occurrence probability of extreme precipitation in the tropics. During the anomalously low (high) ASO events, there are more occurrences of heavier precipitation over the eastern Pacific (western Pacific) and of lighter precipitation over the western Pacific (eastern Pacific). Furthermore, the ASO variations lead tropical rainfall by approximately 21 months, suggesting that the ASO can serve as a potentially effective predictor of tropical rainfall.

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A connection from Arctic stratospheric ozone to El Niño-Southern oscillation

Cited by 90 publications

References 80 publications

Long‐Term Trend of the Tropical Pacific Trade Winds Under Global Warming and Its Causes

Long‐Term Trend of the Tropical Pacific Trade Winds Under Global Warming and Its Causes

Zonally asymmetric trends of winter total column ozone in the northern middle latitudes

Delayed effect of Arctic stratospheric ozone on tropical rainfall

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